Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays — Prediction & Odds

August 13, 2026 · Payton Tolle vs Max Scherzer · 76°F

7.8% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Boston Red Sox win

48.8%

Toronto Blue Jays win

51.2%

Fair line (home)

-105

Proj. total

8.8

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 4.45)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.34)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.8

Over

49.0%

Under

43.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	48.8%	-137	+105
Toronto Blue Jays	51.2%	+126	-105

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Sogard	4.8	.736	.189	.013	.068	.468	1.071	.235	.316	.333	.648
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.7	.749	.220	.034	.164	.211	.941	.264	.306	.441	.747
Wilyer Abreu	4.6	.643	.194	.021	.197	.435	1.053	.256	.330	.457	.787
Willson Contreras	4.5	.600	.176	.014	.236	.405	1.130	.260	.345	.491	.836
Masataka Yoshida	4.4	.782	.191	.015	.123	.298	.579	.277	.336	.425	.761
Caleb Durbin	4.3	.660	.211	.016	.118	.284	.519	.259	.325	.412	.738
Jarren Duran	4.1	.549	.197	.052	.128	.312	1.047	.244	.309	.425	.734
Andruw Monasterio	4.0	.632	.189	.005	.086	.319	.901	.248	.313	.372	.685
Connor Wong	3.9	.619	.177	.008	.097	.267	.943	.251	.312	.385	.697

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Charles McAdoo	4.6	.654	.177	.013	.132	.383	1.288	.233	.303	.377	.680
Ernie Clement	4.5	.887	.244	.018	.102	.203	.471	.294	.330	.431	.761
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.4	.740	.208	.003	.208	.533	.609	.304	.394	.523	.917
George Springer	4.3	.634	.166	.012	.186	.460	.866	.263	.349	.461	.810
Kazuma Okamoto	4.2	.568	.171	.005	.208	.371	1.014	.252	.326	.465	.791
Andrés Giménez	4.1	.672	.175	.016	.110	.243	.777	.258	.317	.401	.718
Brandon Valenzuela	4.0	.539	.140	.004	.110	.320	1.082	.219	.286	.351	.637
Myles Straw	3.9	.656	.155	.013	.042	.326	.764	.247	.314	.335	.649
Nathan Lukes	3.7	.676	.161	.012	.084	.320	.607	.276	.345	.406	.751

Data notes: home starter Max Scherzer: only 53 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections