New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays — Prediction & Odds

August 16, 2026 · Ryan Weathers vs Dylan Cease · 72°F

0.2% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

New York Yankees win

46.8%

Toronto Blue Jays win

53.3%

Fair line (home)

-114

Proj. total

7.54

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 3.76)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 3.78)

O/U line

6.5

Proj. total

7.54

Over

55.9%

Under

44.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	46.8%	+109	+114
Toronto Blue Jays	53.3%	-118	-114

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ben Rice	4.7	.517	.144	.018	.242	.563	1.263	.226	.326	.448	.774
Luis García Jr.	4.6	.728	.194	.025	.166	.270	.908	.259	.305	.431	.737
Heliot Ramos	4.5	.624	.155	.026	.141	.356	1.373	.232	.301	.387	.688
Trent Grisham	4.4	.476	.133	.016	.168	.612	1.183	.213	.328	.392	.719
Spencer Jones	4.3	.455	.132	.007	.143	.369	1.816	.190	.265	.339	.604
George Lombard Jr.	4.2	.459	.146	.007	.058	.473	1.372	.184	.285	.276	.561
Ryan McMahon	4.0	.442	.116	.004	.130	.475	1.470	.195	.293	.340	.633
Austin Wells	3.9	.417	.125	.006	.137	.399	1.209	.196	.283	.352	.636
José Caballero	3.8	.495	.134	.006	.078	.357	1.128	.210	.296	.322	.618

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.5	.721	.144	.013	.048	.520	1.164	.234	.326	.313	.640
Charles McAdoo	4.4	.598	.153	.014	.121	.332	1.283	.220	.285	.355	.640
Alejandro Kirk	4.3	.700	.163	.006	.142	.449	.614	.265	.347	.423	.770
George Springer	4.2	.594	.145	.010	.179	.425	.888	.249	.332	.437	.769
Ernie Clement	4.1	.768	.204	.015	.088	.177	.443	.277	.313	.405	.718
Kazuma Okamoto	4.0	.517	.146	.005	.197	.330	.978	.240	.312	.448	.760
Daz Cameron	3.9	.510	.145	.022	.124	.299	1.040	.227	.295	.386	.681
Andrés Giménez	3.7	.592	.141	.013	.096	.197	.721	.243	.299	.375	.674
Myles Straw	3.6	.588	.133	.010	.040	.285	.733	.233	.297	.315	.612

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections