Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays — Prediction & Odds

August 25, 2026 · Seth Lugo vs Max Scherzer · 69°F

0.4% edge · Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals win

44.6%

Toronto Blue Jays win

55.4%

Fair line (home)

-124

Proj. total

9.06

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 4.35)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.71)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.06

Over

51.3%

Under

41.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	44.6%	+122	+124
Toronto Blue Jays	55.4%	-132	-124

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Seth Lugo RHP · Kansas City Royals	5.2	3.6	6.1	1.7	2.7
Max Scherzer RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	4.3	3.6	4.3	1.2	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Seth Lugo4+ 50%6+ 15%8+ 3%

Max Scherzer4+ 50%6+ 14%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.7	.617	.208	.019	.190	.417	1.284	.240	.311	.430	.741
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.6	.753	.246	.027	.215	.347	.781	.292	.351	.514	.865
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.5	.653	.204	.020	.185	.379	.712	.258	.326	.452	.778
Salvador Perez	4.4	.662	.171	.009	.204	.187	.877	.251	.294	.442	.737
Michael Massey	4.3	.704	.204	.016	.141	.186	.747	.259	.295	.419	.715
Nick Loftin	4.2	.620	.185	.022	.094	.376	.652	.244	.321	.379	.700
Isaac Collins	4.1	.579	.168	.033	.086	.401	.893	.238	.322	.373	.694
John Rave	4.0	.542	.159	.028	.110	.316	.962	.230	.294	.379	.674
Kyle Isbel	3.9	.604	.165	.033	.080	.214	.794	.244	.292	.374	.667

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.7	.892	.187	.015	.042	.500	.916	.273	.355	.356	.711
Nathan Lukes	4.6	.915	.226	.014	.101	.324	.573	.299	.355	.432	.787
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.5	.839	.216	.004	.195	.500	.510	.321	.403	.527	.930
Kazuma Okamoto	4.3	.658	.185	.005	.199	.362	.902	.266	.335	.466	.801
Jesús Sánchez	4.2	.693	.195	.014	.160	.362	.858	.277	.346	.459	.805
Ernie Clement	4.1	.848	.226	.015	.083	.189	.340	.299	.335	.427	.762
Andrés Giménez	4.0	.734	.186	.011	.095	.213	.632	.276	.333	.409	.743
Brandon Valenzuela	3.9	.573	.150	.006	.125	.320	.931	.239	.307	.390	.697
Myles Straw	3.8	.700	.160	.018	.041	.302	.584	.265	.328	.357	.685

Data notes: home starter Max Scherzer: only 71 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections