Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays — Prediction & Odds

August 26, 2026 · Randy Dobnak vs Spencer Miles · 71°F

4.5% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Kansas City Royals win

36.8%

Toronto Blue Jays win

63.2%

Fair line (home)

-171

Proj. total

9.57

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 4.15)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 5.41)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.57

Over

56.0%

Under

44.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	36.8%	+137	+171
Toronto Blue Jays	63.2%	-149	-171

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Randy Dobnak RHP · Kansas City Royals	4.6	2.0	6.1	1.9	2.8
Spencer Miles RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	2.4	2.1	2.3	0.7	0.8

Strikeout ladder

Randy Dobnak4+ 15%6+ 2%8+ 0%

Spencer Miles4+ 15%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.7	.631	.212	.018	.143	.433	1.264	.235	.309	.393	.701
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.6	.785	.246	.033	.170	.366	.766	.292	.353	.486	.839
Jac Caglianone	4.5	.705	.194	.021	.194	.302	1.055	.267	.323	.462	.785
Salvador Perez	4.4	.680	.167	.007	.166	.194	.881	.246	.291	.410	.701
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.3	.643	.189	.017	.147	.399	.671	.257	.331	.429	.760
Nick Loftin	4.2	.648	.190	.023	.079	.387	.651	.250	.328	.375	.703
John Rave	4.1	.561	.161	.029	.092	.345	.974	.226	.295	.358	.653
Tyler Tolbert	4.0	.645	.164	.012	.050	.233	.943	.235	.287	.326	.613
Kyle Isbel	3.9	.617	.153	.039	.066	.237	.794	.244	.297	.364	.661

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.8	.985	.204	.016	.037	.549	.766	.295	.380	.378	.758
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.7	.919	.241	.004	.174	.545	.429	.327	.412	.516	.928
Alejandro Kirk	4.6	.911	.195	.005	.125	.529	.382	.309	.395	.455	.850
George Springer	4.5	.790	.185	.020	.165	.490	.576	.297	.382	.480	.863
Jesús Sánchez	4.3	.745	.220	.014	.143	.389	.735	.287	.359	.460	.819
Kazuma Okamoto	4.2	.667	.189	.005	.179	.400	.731	.275	.354	.470	.824
Nathan Lukes	4.1	.843	.205	.013	.086	.328	.436	.304	.365	.434	.799
Ernie Clement	4.0	.851	.231	.016	.072	.185	.271	.307	.344	.433	.777
Andrés Giménez	3.9	.730	.184	.013	.081	.219	.511	.282	.342	.409	.751

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections