Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays — Prediction & Odds

August 27, 2026 · Noah Cameron vs Spencer Arrighetti · 76°F

5.8% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Kansas City Royals win

44.5%

Toronto Blue Jays win

55.5%

Fair line (home)

-125

Proj. total

9.69

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 4.70)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.99)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.69

Over

57.5%

Under

35.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	44.5%	-105	+125
Toronto Blue Jays	55.5%	-103	-125

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Noah Cameron LHP · Kansas City Royals	5.2	3.7	6.1	1.8	2.8
Spencer Arrighetti RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	4.9	4.6	4.9	2.3	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Noah Cameron4+ 51%6+ 16%8+ 3%

Spencer Arrighetti4+ 69%6+ 32%8+ 9%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.8	.578	.208	.024	.170	.535	1.325	.229	.320	.409	.729
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.7	.778	.245	.027	.207	.450	.803	.297	.371	.514	.885
Jac Caglianone	4.6	.674	.184	.018	.235	.363	1.094	.264	.332	.485	.816
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.5	.630	.194	.019	.176	.488	.721	.256	.345	.447	.792
Salvador Perez	4.4	.649	.163	.006	.201	.227	.893	.250	.306	.440	.746
Isaac Collins	4.3	.587	.171	.036	.085	.548	.937	.239	.348	.374	.723
John Rave	4.2	.570	.164	.030	.110	.421	.987	.234	.316	.382	.698
Josh Rojas	4.1	.607	.188	.012	.068	.385	.832	.239	.316	.352	.668
Kyle Isbel	4.0	.629	.154	.037	.073	.293	.816	.246	.310	.368	.678

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Charles McAdoo	4.7	.768	.194	.022	.168	.343	1.104	.266	.325	.437	.762
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.6	.869	.223	.004	.199	.526	.543	.322	.406	.527	.933
Alejandro Kirk	4.5	.848	.180	.006	.147	.490	.486	.298	.380	.458	.838
George Springer	4.4	.711	.166	.014	.176	.444	.727	.274	.355	.460	.815
Kazuma Okamoto	4.3	.625	.186	.003	.203	.378	.919	.264	.338	.473	.810
Ernie Clement	4.2	.858	.230	.015	.090	.179	.351	.301	.335	.435	.770
Daz Cameron	4.0	.629	.198	.024	.140	.317	.849	.268	.332	.448	.780
Myles Straw	3.9	.712	.164	.019	.043	.311	.622	.260	.323	.352	.675
Nathan Lukes	3.8	.753	.174	.013	.086	.289	.495	.293	.352	.423	.775

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections