Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays — Prediction & Odds

August 29, 2026 · Kade Anderson vs José Soriano · 75°F

3.2% edge · Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners win

52.7%

Toronto Blue Jays win

47.3%

Fair line (home)

+111

Proj. total

8.43

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 4.48)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 3.94)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.43

Over

52.7%

Under

47.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	52.7%	-102	-111
Toronto Blue Jays	47.3%	-106	+111

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Kade Anderson LHP · Seattle Mariners	5.1	5.0	5.0	1.5	2.1
José Soriano RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	5.1	5.1	4.9	2.5	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Kade Anderson4+ 75%6+ 38%8+ 11%

José Soriano4+ 76%6+ 40%8+ 13%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Randy Arozarena	4.9	.696	.204	.009	.132	.536	1.200	.248	.353	.396	.749
Dominic Canzone	4.8	.707	.199	.009	.171	.428	1.074	.253	.325	.423	.748
Julio Rodríguez	4.7	.785	.191	.013	.173	.389	1.010	.276	.345	.451	.796
Josh Naylor	4.5	.797	.197	.003	.120	.421	.654	.274	.347	.412	.759
Cal Raleigh	4.4	.468	.130	.004	.194	.578	1.297	.209	.320	.398	.718
Cole Young	4.3	.705	.170	.029	.095	.394	.723	.258	.334	.390	.725
Taylor Ward	4.2	.554	.157	.011	.111	.587	.993	.232	.346	.374	.721
J.P. Crawford	4.1	.612	.153	.003	.075	.560	.837	.240	.351	.350	.701
Brock Rodden	4.0	.537	.160	.017	.095	.271	1.158	.220	.280	.349	.629

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.5	.768	.154	.013	.041	.418	1.192	.238	.312	.312	.624
Alejandro Kirk	4.4	.775	.165	.005	.128	.431	.680	.271	.347	.412	.759
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.3	.743	.199	.003	.182	.442	.695	.293	.372	.488	.859
George Springer	4.2	.625	.150	.015	.164	.371	.949	.250	.323	.426	.749
Kazuma Okamoto	4.1	.541	.158	.004	.181	.310	1.135	.234	.301	.423	.723
Charles McAdoo	4.0	.577	.148	.015	.127	.250	1.194	.232	.285	.381	.667
Ernie Clement	3.9	.741	.205	.015	.073	.152	.467	.277	.310	.399	.709
Daz Cameron	3.8	.531	.155	.018	.117	.257	1.017	.235	.294	.391	.685
Myles Straw	3.7	.592	.139	.016	.037	.254	.761	.232	.290	.315	.605

Data notes: away starter Kade Anderson: only 6 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Kade Anderson: only 16 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections