Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays — Prediction & Odds

August 28, 2026 · Emerson Hancock vs Dylan Cease · 68°F

1.1% edge · Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners win

44.0%

Toronto Blue Jays win

56.0%

Fair line (home)

-127

Proj. total

8.2

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 3.88)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.31)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.2

Over

50.5%

Under

37.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	44.0%	+129	+127
Toronto Blue Jays	56.0%	-140	-127

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Emerson Hancock RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.1	3.7	5.6	1.6	2.5
Dylan Cease RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	5.6	7.1	4.4	2.4	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Emerson Hancock4+ 51%6+ 16%8+ 3%

Dylan Cease4+ 94%6+ 73%8+ 41%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Randy Arozarena	4.7	.597	.168	.009	.142	.502	1.435	.222	.322	.370	.693
Dominic Canzone	4.6	.603	.175	.009	.176	.387	1.264	.229	.298	.400	.698
Julio Rodríguez	4.5	.671	.170	.010	.171	.360	1.215	.248	.315	.419	.734
Josh Naylor	4.4	.689	.171	.003	.129	.405	.809	.250	.323	.392	.715
Cal Raleigh	4.3	.393	.116	.002	.196	.529	1.455	.189	.295	.379	.675
Cole Young	4.2	.630	.142	.028	.097	.376	.885	.237	.314	.367	.680
Taylor Ward	4.1	.498	.132	.008	.109	.533	1.163	.212	.321	.347	.668
J.P. Crawford	4.0	.540	.141	.004	.071	.522	.962	.222	.330	.328	.658
Brock Rodden	3.9	.483	.135	.013	.090	.255	1.305	.202	.261	.322	.583

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.6	.820	.171	.015	.041	.452	1.009	.255	.333	.334	.666
Nathan Lukes	4.5	.832	.206	.014	.100	.312	.641	.279	.336	.408	.744
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.4	.793	.204	.003	.181	.479	.547	.307	.391	.503	.894
George Springer	4.3	.666	.155	.016	.174	.403	.772	.266	.343	.452	.795
Jesús Sánchez	4.2	.628	.193	.011	.151	.328	.918	.259	.325	.435	.760
Kazuma Okamoto	4.1	.563	.152	.003	.186	.318	.946	.245	.315	.440	.754
Andrés Giménez	4.0	.665	.169	.011	.087	.201	.678	.256	.314	.381	.695
Ernie Clement	3.8	.750	.197	.015	.076	.158	.359	.285	.319	.410	.729
Brandon Valenzuela	3.7	.512	.123	.006	.117	.288	.941	.224	.290	.367	.657

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections