Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays — Prediction & Odds

September 12, 2026 · Kyle Bradish vs Spencer Miles · 71°F

3.4% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Baltimore Orioles win

42.6%

Toronto Blue Jays win

57.4%

Fair line (home)

-135

Proj. total

8.33

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 3.95)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.38)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.33

Over

44.3%

Under

55.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	42.6%	+113	+135
Toronto Blue Jays	57.4%	-123	-135

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Kyle Bradish RHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.1	4.4	5.4	2.3	2.4
Spencer Miles RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	2.3	2.7	2.0	0.7	0.8

Strikeout ladder

Kyle Bradish4+ 65%6+ 27%8+ 6%

Spencer Miles4+ 26%6+ 3%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dylan Beavers	4.7	.650	.187	.010	.125	.503	1.155	.233	.320	.373	.692
Pete Alonso	4.6	.573	.166	.004	.221	.465	1.125	.238	.328	.446	.774
Jackson Holliday	4.5	.646	.160	.021	.102	.450	1.056	.232	.314	.359	.673
Coby Mayo	4.4	.518	.157	.026	.184	.365	1.292	.223	.296	.415	.711
Gunnar Henderson	4.3	.600	.175	.028	.152	.438	.903	.252	.335	.433	.767
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.2	.550	.162	.015	.174	.200	1.178	.230	.275	.412	.687
Heston Kjerstad	4.0	.583	.153	.014	.119	.232	1.070	.230	.283	.373	.657
Colton Cowser	3.9	.493	.128	.006	.131	.384	1.248	.215	.299	.367	.666
Carlos Narváez	3.8	.465	.130	.005	.091	.328	1.120	.200	.278	.320	.598

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.7	.840	.162	.017	.034	.534	1.068	.258	.347	.331	.678
George Springer	4.5	.695	.168	.015	.165	.483	.874	.260	.345	.432	.778
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.4	.772	.195	.003	.173	.530	.611	.296	.385	.482	.868
Alejandro Kirk	4.3	.760	.164	.006	.133	.504	.560	.280	.369	.432	.801
Nathan Lukes	4.2	.791	.182	.010	.098	.339	.663	.281	.343	.409	.753
Kazuma Okamoto	4.1	.529	.163	.003	.177	.392	1.014	.237	.316	.427	.743
Josh Smith	4.0	.606	.156	.013	.078	.431	.819	.243	.336	.362	.698
Andrés Giménez	3.9	.657	.161	.010	.089	.227	.723	.256	.314	.381	.694
Rudy Martin Jr.	3.8	.603	.119	.007	.076	.339	1.015	.237	.311	.344	.655

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections