Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays — Prediction & Odds

September 11, 2026 · Chris Bassitt vs Max Scherzer · 67°F

0.5% edge · Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles win

45.5%

Toronto Blue Jays win

54.5%

Fair line (home)

-120

Proj. total

9.16

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.49)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.68)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

9.16

Over

59.7%

Under

40.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	45.5%	+118	+120
Toronto Blue Jays	54.5%	-127	-120

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Chris Bassitt RHP · Baltimore Orioles	4.9	3.2	5.6	2.0	2.6
Max Scherzer RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	4.5	4.8	4.3	1.5	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Chris Bassitt4+ 40%6+ 10%8+ 1%

Max Scherzer4+ 72%6+ 34%8+ 10%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dylan Beavers	4.7	.657	.184	.009	.163	.499	1.097	.241	.325	.406	.731
Pete Alonso	4.6	.576	.164	.004	.286	.454	1.085	.252	.337	.504	.841
Jackson Holliday	4.5	.645	.168	.017	.123	.426	1.032	.236	.313	.377	.690
Coby Mayo	4.4	.505	.157	.023	.234	.340	1.294	.229	.298	.456	.753
Gunnar Henderson	4.3	.583	.183	.026	.186	.404	.900	.254	.330	.460	.790
Samuel Basallo	4.2	.532	.146	.007	.224	.321	1.047	.237	.301	.453	.754
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.1	.540	.151	.013	.195	.185	1.141	.233	.276	.430	.706
Heston Kjerstad	4.0	.567	.138	.013	.144	.206	1.022	.233	.282	.394	.676
Colton Cowser	3.8	.465	.126	.006	.153	.363	1.184	.218	.299	.391	.690

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.7	.892	.177	.020	.035	.509	.969	.271	.357	.349	.706
George Springer	4.6	.723	.179	.013	.173	.475	.789	.269	.354	.448	.802
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.5	.796	.214	.003	.173	.512	.536	.303	.391	.493	.883
Alejandro Kirk	4.4	.782	.164	.005	.138	.480	.494	.283	.369	.436	.805
Nathan Lukes	4.3	.788	.186	.011	.098	.331	.584	.278	.341	.407	.748
Kazuma Okamoto	4.2	.571	.166	.004	.195	.362	.929	.250	.325	.453	.778
Josh Smith	4.0	.633	.153	.014	.087	.429	.735	.252	.349	.377	.726
Andrés Giménez	3.9	.669	.165	.011	.088	.226	.658	.260	.323	.386	.709
Ernie Clement	3.8	.745	.180	.015	.070	.175	.345	.279	.317	.395	.712

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections