Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays — Prediction & Odds

August 30, 2026 · Logan Gilbert vs Max Scherzer · 66°F

0.2% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Seattle Mariners win

55.4%

Toronto Blue Jays win

44.6%

Fair line (home)

+124

Proj. total

8.47

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 4.61)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 3.86)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.47

Over

45.4%

Under

47.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	55.4%	-131	-124
Toronto Blue Jays	44.6%	+121	+124

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Logan Gilbert RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.5	5.1	5.4	1.5	2.2
Max Scherzer RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	4.4	4.1	4.3	1.4	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Logan Gilbert4+ 77%6+ 41%8+ 13%

Max Scherzer4+ 61%6+ 22%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Randy Arozarena	4.8	.665	.197	.009	.194	.443	1.161	.251	.339	.439	.779
Dominic Canzone	4.7	.679	.194	.008	.232	.331	1.023	.257	.314	.467	.781
Julio Rodríguez	4.6	.745	.182	.011	.241	.317	.971	.280	.338	.500	.837
Cal Raleigh	4.5	.465	.124	.003	.269	.474	1.274	.218	.308	.455	.763
Josh Naylor	4.4	.735	.183	.004	.161	.327	.634	.270	.330	.439	.769
Taylor Ward	4.3	.544	.157	.012	.153	.495	1.021	.232	.328	.404	.732
Cole Young	4.2	.663	.156	.027	.114	.314	.709	.253	.318	.399	.717
J.P. Crawford	4.0	.605	.145	.003	.097	.464	.797	.241	.335	.366	.700
Brock Rodden	3.9	.526	.145	.017	.113	.225	1.127	.219	.270	.360	.629

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.5	.775	.159	.013	.039	.402	1.179	.240	.311	.313	.624
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.4	.765	.200	.005	.189	.417	.711	.291	.364	.486	.850
Alejandro Kirk	4.3	.737	.160	.006	.125	.402	.657	.264	.338	.404	.742
George Springer	4.2	.623	.158	.015	.171	.362	.915	.252	.323	.435	.758
Nathan Lukes	4.1	.735	.175	.010	.086	.251	.738	.261	.312	.379	.691
Kazuma Okamoto	4.0	.532	.148	.004	.172	.280	1.081	.232	.294	.414	.708
Andrés Giménez	3.9	.639	.156	.011	.085	.179	.824	.245	.297	.364	.661
Charles McAdoo	3.8	.544	.136	.013	.121	.227	1.103	.230	.282	.378	.660
Myles Straw	3.7	.613	.138	.016	.037	.239	.745	.236	.291	.319	.610

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections