Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays — Prediction & Odds

September 14, 2026 · Troy Melton vs José Soriano · 64°F

3.6% edge · Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers win

46.6%

Toronto Blue Jays win

53.4%

Fair line (home)

-115

Proj. total

8.41

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Detroit Tigers (mean 4.15)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.26)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.41

Over

52.4%

Under

47.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Detroit Tigers	46.6%	+128	+115
Toronto Blue Jays	53.4%	-139	-115

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Troy Melton RHP · Detroit Tigers	5.4	3.5	5.7	1.8	2.5
José Soriano RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	5.2	5.0	5.0	2.5	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Troy Melton4+ 47%6+ 13%8+ 2%

José Soriano4+ 75%6+ 38%8+ 11%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kevin McGonigle	4.8	.773	.202	.026	.111	.644	.707	.268	.370	.409	.780
Gleyber Torres	4.7	.756	.169	.004	.094	.595	.851	.250	.349	.362	.711
Colt Keith	4.6	.761	.171	.031	.102	.414	.945	.256	.329	.385	.714
Riley Greene	4.5	.651	.188	.016	.140	.501	1.242	.251	.340	.412	.752
Dillon Dingler	4.4	.635	.180	.013	.131	.295	1.046	.238	.304	.388	.691
Brett Callahan	4.3	.652	.150	.030	.084	.291	1.142	.232	.295	.350	.644
Max Clark	4.2	.654	.148	.038	.076	.409	.853	.246	.327	.367	.694
Spencer Torkelson	4.1	.474	.158	.004	.131	.466	1.173	.216	.313	.373	.686
Zach McKinstry	4.0	.563	.141	.046	.054	.391	.778	.228	.312	.340	.651

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.6	.828	.158	.017	.045	.480	.951	.257	.340	.337	.677
George Springer	4.5	.680	.169	.015	.178	.420	.762	.259	.335	.440	.775
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.4	.763	.196	.002	.175	.452	.526	.292	.371	.479	.849
Alejandro Kirk	4.3	.740	.152	.005	.138	.445	.487	.272	.352	.423	.775
Nathan Lukes	4.2	.792	.169	.012	.093	.290	.572	.276	.332	.398	.730
Kazuma Okamoto	4.1	.541	.155	.003	.190	.335	.902	.241	.311	.439	.750
Andrés Giménez	4.0	.667	.150	.009	.089	.200	.645	.249	.303	.367	.671
Josh Smith	3.8	.571	.144	.014	.089	.367	.714	.240	.326	.369	.696
Ernie Clement	3.7	.682	.178	.012	.069	.154	.335	.266	.301	.382	.682

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections