Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays — Prediction & Odds

September 13, 2026 · Trevor Rogers vs Dylan Cease · 73°F

0.2% edge · Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles win

42.9%

Toronto Blue Jays win

57.1%

Fair line (home)

-133

Proj. total

7.77

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 3.67)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.09)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.77

Over

47.1%

Under

41.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	42.9%	+130	+133
Toronto Blue Jays	57.1%	-141	-133

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Trevor Rogers LHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.3	4.1	5.6	1.7	2.4
Dylan Cease RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	5.7	7.9	4.2	2.3	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Trevor Rogers4+ 60%6+ 23%8+ 5%

Dylan Cease4+ 96%6+ 83%8+ 55%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dylan Beavers	4.6	.572	.160	.010	.126	.545	1.372	.213	.310	.350	.660
Pete Alonso	4.5	.514	.144	.003	.213	.501	1.350	.221	.317	.420	.737
Gunnar Henderson	4.4	.537	.162	.029	.152	.485	1.171	.225	.315	.397	.713
Coby Mayo	4.3	.445	.136	.024	.182	.381	1.503	.201	.279	.388	.667
Samuel Basallo	4.2	.490	.130	.007	.183	.356	1.310	.211	.284	.392	.676
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.1	.501	.140	.014	.166	.211	1.395	.213	.260	.385	.645
Jackson Holliday	4.0	.518	.128	.015	.087	.415	1.147	.210	.297	.327	.624
Leody Taveras	3.9	.527	.112	.029	.076	.299	1.126	.209	.272	.321	.593
Colton Cowser	3.8	.411	.110	.004	.118	.395	1.401	.193	.284	.335	.618

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.5	.842	.163	.017	.039	.465	.986	.261	.341	.339	.679
George Springer	4.4	.691	.176	.016	.171	.418	.813	.265	.339	.446	.785
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.3	.759	.207	.003	.173	.481	.547	.299	.382	.491	.873
Kazuma Okamoto	4.2	.567	.168	.004	.196	.348	.990	.243	.311	.441	.753
Charles McAdoo	4.1	.648	.155	.017	.129	.285	1.036	.249	.305	.400	.705
Ernie Clement	4.0	.775	.202	.015	.075	.164	.377	.278	.312	.397	.709
Andrés Giménez	3.9	.685	.164	.011	.093	.210	.664	.263	.317	.392	.709
Brandon Valenzuela	3.8	.534	.133	.005	.118	.282	.971	.227	.290	.370	.660
Myles Straw	3.7	.633	.143	.018	.035	.282	.628	.246	.308	.331	.638

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections