Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays — Prediction & Odds

September 16, 2026 · Keider Montero vs Max Scherzer · 72°F

4.0% edge · Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers win

48.8%

Toronto Blue Jays win

51.2%

Fair line (home)

-105

Proj. total

8.9

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Detroit Tigers (mean 4.50)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.40)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.9

Over

49.3%

Under

50.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Detroit Tigers	48.8%	+119	+105
Toronto Blue Jays	51.2%	-129	-105

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Keider Montero RHP · Detroit Tigers	4.4	2.8	4.9	1.5	2.2
Max Scherzer RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	4.5	4.2	4.6	1.4	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Keider Montero4+ 30%6+ 5%8+ 0%

Max Scherzer4+ 62%6+ 24%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kevin McGonigle	4.8	.744	.197	.032	.166	.542	.683	.270	.358	.450	.808
Hao-Yu Lee	4.7	.704	.175	.029	.141	.339	1.049	.244	.306	.397	.702
Colt Keith	4.6	.721	.170	.035	.155	.371	.900	.260	.325	.429	.753
Riley Greene	4.5	.637	.205	.017	.212	.417	1.181	.267	.341	.486	.827
Dillon Dingler	4.3	.618	.172	.017	.194	.246	1.001	.248	.302	.443	.745
Max Clark	4.2	.663	.155	.035	.117	.376	.832	.253	.326	.403	.729
Spencer Torkelson	4.1	.470	.162	.004	.194	.419	1.163	.226	.312	.431	.743
Brett Callahan	4.0	.604	.141	.032	.118	.232	1.048	.239	.293	.389	.682
John Peck	3.9	.636	.159	.023	.091	.191	.985	.248	.291	.378	.669

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.6	.864	.166	.021	.050	.493	.925	.268	.350	.355	.705
Nathan Lukes	4.5	.866	.204	.012	.115	.310	.586	.287	.342	.424	.766
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.4	.787	.200	.003	.193	.477	.494	.303	.384	.505	.889
George Springer	4.3	.675	.169	.014	.181	.421	.691	.270	.349	.463	.812
Kazuma Okamoto	4.2	.565	.163	.003	.217	.370	.886	.250	.324	.467	.791
Josh Smith	4.1	.625	.159	.018	.091	.402	.723	.246	.334	.375	.709
Ernie Clement	4.0	.768	.201	.012	.073	.168	.332	.277	.312	.394	.706
Brandon Valenzuela	3.9	.537	.141	.007	.125	.307	.914	.229	.295	.378	.673
Myles Straw	3.8	.650	.150	.016	.037	.309	.575	.249	.315	.335	.650

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections