Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays — Prediction & Odds

September 15, 2026 · Drew Anderson vs Braydon Fisher · 69°F

2.7% edge · Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers win

45.7%

Toronto Blue Jays win

54.3%

Fair line (home)

-119

Proj. total

8.47

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Detroit Tigers (mean 4.16)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.31)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.47

Over

45.0%

Under

55.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Detroit Tigers	45.7%	+128	+119
Toronto Blue Jays	54.3%	-139	-119

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Drew Anderson RHP · Detroit Tigers	2.3	1.8	2.3	1.0	0.9
Braydon Fisher RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	2.1	2.2	1.9	1.1	0.8

Strikeout ladder

Drew Anderson4+ 10%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Braydon Fisher4+ 16%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kevin McGonigle	4.8	.736	.185	.029	.132	.623	.718	.261	.361	.416	.777
Gleyber Torres	4.7	.730	.166	.004	.107	.583	.888	.248	.346	.370	.716
Hao-Yu Lee	4.6	.665	.172	.026	.111	.379	1.072	.235	.305	.370	.675
Riley Greene	4.5	.645	.190	.016	.164	.480	1.236	.257	.342	.438	.780
Eduardo Valencia	4.4	.644	.167	.010	.174	.284	1.027	.247	.303	.422	.725
Max Clark	4.3	.647	.151	.035	.090	.421	.878	.243	.324	.372	.696
Spencer Torkelson	4.2	.475	.152	.004	.151	.470	1.228	.215	.312	.384	.696
Zach McKinstry	4.0	.552	.134	.051	.059	.393	.816	.221	.303	.336	.639
John Peck	3.9	.639	.152	.021	.072	.209	1.026	.241	.289	.353	.641

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.6	.805	.161	.018	.039	.552	1.040	.252	.345	.329	.675
George Springer	4.5	.674	.170	.014	.163	.503	.840	.256	.346	.429	.775
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.4	.737	.196	.003	.164	.537	.595	.287	.381	.468	.849
Alejandro Kirk	4.3	.743	.151	.005	.125	.513	.530	.272	.365	.415	.780
Nathan Lukes	4.2	.751	.179	.012	.088	.333	.643	.269	.333	.390	.724
Kazuma Okamoto	4.1	.519	.159	.003	.179	.398	.971	.235	.317	.427	.744
Andrés Giménez	4.0	.657	.159	.012	.080	.228	.708	.248	.310	.363	.672
Josh Smith	3.9	.561	.145	.015	.075	.420	.772	.235	.333	.353	.686
Ernie Clement	3.8	.710	.188	.009	.067	.178	.364	.273	.312	.387	.699

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections