Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays — Prediction & Odds

September 25, 2026 · Nick Lodolo vs José Soriano · 62°F

2.6% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Cincinnati Reds win

38.9%

Toronto Blue Jays win

61.1%

Fair line (home)

-157

Proj. total

8.71

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 3.92)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.79)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.71

Over

56.1%

Under

43.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	38.9%	+136	+157
Toronto Blue Jays	61.1%	-148	-157

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Nick Lodolo LHP · Cincinnati Reds	5.1	4.0	5.6	1.9	2.7
José Soriano RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	5.4	5.4	4.9	2.2	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Nick Lodolo4+ 58%6+ 20%8+ 4%

José Soriano4+ 81%6+ 46%8+ 17%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carlos Jorge	4.8	.779	.149	.039	.071	.316	1.179	.236	.294	.337	.630
Elly De La Cruz	4.6	.694	.193	.050	.131	.526	1.217	.262	.351	.431	.782
Sal Stewart	4.5	.705	.197	.002	.144	.445	.976	.259	.338	.416	.754
JJ Bleday	4.4	.525	.172	.018	.129	.592	1.016	.222	.330	.378	.708
Eugenio Suárez	4.3	.491	.150	.003	.160	.445	1.375	.211	.306	.378	.684
Héctor Rodríguez	4.2	.646	.153	.029	.129	.261	.915	.245	.298	.398	.695
Juan Brito	4.1	.579	.170	.015	.071	.408	.870	.228	.312	.342	.654
Jose Trevino	4.0	.658	.149	.006	.080	.235	.684	.240	.290	.347	.637
Oswaldo Cabrera	3.9	.615	.135	.011	.079	.275	.888	.236	.296	.346	.642

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Charles McAdoo	4.7	.709	.172	.021	.158	.332	1.192	.248	.311	.408	.719
Alejandro Kirk	4.5	.830	.175	.004	.153	.482	.561	.290	.373	.450	.824
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.4	.780	.207	.003	.191	.484	.573	.305	.392	.507	.899
George Springer	4.3	.685	.166	.014	.184	.433	.779	.274	.358	.468	.826
Kazuma Okamoto	4.2	.577	.167	.003	.208	.377	.973	.253	.334	.465	.799
Nathan Lukes	4.1	.786	.185	.012	.101	.301	.604	.288	.349	.424	.773
Davis Schneider	4.0	.427	.142	.008	.154	.577	1.159	.218	.346	.404	.750
Ernie Clement	3.9	.763	.204	.014	.078	.176	.365	.287	.327	.414	.740
Myles Straw	3.8	.662	.159	.014	.039	.318	.633	.255	.324	.344	.668

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections