Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

July 4, 2026 · Braxton Ashcraft vs Zack Littell · 80°F

7.0% edge · Washington Nationals

Pittsburgh Pirates win

52.3%

Washington Nationals win

47.7%

Fair line (home)

+110

Proj. total

9.18

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.82)Washington Nationals (mean 4.36)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.18

Over

34.3%

Under

58.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	52.3%	-154	-110
Washington Nationals	47.7%	+141	+110

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Konnor Griffin	4.8	.915	.213	.032	.129	.303	1.004	.288	.342	.436	.777
Brandon Lowe	4.7	.681	.203	.013	.265	.380	.988	.269	.333	.505	.838
Bryan Reynolds	4.6	.760	.189	.029	.173	.407	.923	.277	.350	.461	.811
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.5	.625	.186	.008	.208	.378	1.081	.251	.322	.453	.775
Ryan O'Hearn	4.4	.777	.191	.012	.166	.368	.694	.286	.353	.464	.817
Nick Gonzales	4.3	.816	.229	.025	.081	.257	.693	.287	.337	.417	.754
Jake Mangum	4.2	.880	.195	.015	.040	.191	.614	.285	.325	.372	.697
Tyler Callihan	4.1	.625	.164	.018	.106	.300	.960	.243	.303	.381	.684
Henry Davis	4.0	.556	.155	.007	.154	.310	.828	.243	.314	.418	.732

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.7	.664	.217	.008	.201	.625	1.304	.274	.378	.483	.861
Luis García Jr.	4.5	.863	.229	.030	.140	.235	.673	.295	.334	.460	.794
Curtis Mead	4.4	.719	.215	.016	.117	.343	.845	.268	.339	.418	.757
CJ Abrams	4.3	.698	.206	.036	.140	.307	.813	.276	.343	.455	.798
Dylan Crews	4.2	.658	.164	.025	.120	.284	.956	.250	.314	.399	.712
Daylen Lile	4.1	.741	.195	.054	.090	.286	.700	.286	.343	.438	.780
Jacob Young	4.0	.741	.159	.026	.063	.257	.723	.268	.327	.377	.703
Drew Millas	3.9	.663	.142	.026	.065	.285	.688	.251	.314	.360	.674
Nasim Nuñez	3.8	.652	.098	.016	.035	.344	.850	.236	.312	.304	.617

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections