Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

July 5, 2026 · Bubba Chandler vs Cade Cavalli · 96°F

1.6% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates win

44.4%

Washington Nationals win

55.6%

Fair line (home)

-125

Proj. total

9.53

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.62)Washington Nationals (mean 4.91)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

9.53

Over

45.6%

Under

54.4%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	44.4%	+129	+125
Washington Nationals	55.6%	-140	-125

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Konnor Griffin	4.9	.904	.209	.028	.100	.355	1.155	.279	.345	.406	.750
Brandon Lowe	4.8	.677	.193	.012	.219	.445	1.147	.257	.334	.461	.795
Bryan Reynolds	4.7	.745	.185	.024	.138	.491	1.050	.267	.356	.425	.781
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.6	.627	.185	.010	.157	.443	1.215	.242	.327	.409	.736
Ryan O'Hearn	4.4	.780	.180	.011	.142	.445	.804	.282	.362	.441	.803
Nick Gonzales	4.3	.801	.229	.025	.068	.286	.782	.282	.340	.403	.743
Endy Rodríguez	4.2	.637	.184	.013	.085	.428	.916	.244	.328	.368	.696
Tyler Callihan	4.1	.631	.167	.020	.083	.351	1.052	.241	.312	.363	.675
Jake Mangum	4.0	.837	.181	.013	.040	.212	.679	.286	.333	.373	.706

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.7	.634	.210	.008	.227	.783	1.262	.278	.404	.511	.915
Luis García Jr.	4.6	.836	.216	.029	.155	.305	.676	.289	.339	.462	.802
Curtis Mead	4.5	.710	.211	.015	.140	.439	.832	.272	.357	.438	.795
CJ Abrams	4.4	.681	.196	.030	.159	.386	.810	.274	.354	.462	.815
Daylen Lile	4.3	.743	.196	.055	.107	.368	.713	.285	.355	.448	.803
Dylan Crews	4.2	.642	.161	.023	.130	.354	.901	.255	.330	.414	.744
José Tena	4.1	.683	.189	.020	.088	.363	1.004	.267	.338	.401	.739
Jorbit Vivas	4.0	.640	.162	.008	.053	.462	.569	.254	.358	.353	.711
Keibert Ruiz	3.8	.667	.173	.004	.115	.217	.445	.269	.319	.416	.734

Data notes: game-time temp 96F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections