Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

July 3, 2026 · Mitch Keller vs Foster Griffin · 100°F

4.9% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates win

46.1%

Washington Nationals win

53.9%

Fair line (home)

-117

Proj. total

9.3

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.57)Washington Nationals (mean 4.73)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

9.3

Over

43.5%

Under

56.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	46.1%	+138	+117
Washington Nationals	53.9%	-150	-117

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Konnor Griffin	4.9	.898	.204	.032	.115	.316	1.144	.279	.338	.417	.754
Brandon Lowe	4.8	.670	.195	.012	.234	.385	1.124	.257	.325	.471	.795
Bryan Reynolds	4.6	.771	.187	.018	.142	.402	1.043	.269	.344	.425	.769
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.5	.633	.182	.010	.178	.394	1.214	.246	.320	.426	.746
Ryan O'Hearn	4.4	.789	.184	.014	.150	.372	.789	.284	.351	.449	.801
Nick Gonzales	4.3	.819	.224	.028	.078	.265	.770	.288	.340	.416	.757
Jake Mangum	4.2	.894	.192	.010	.039	.183	.687	.286	.326	.369	.695
Endy Rodríguez	4.1	.629	.179	.009	.084	.350	.902	.243	.315	.365	.680
Jared Triolo	4.0	.666	.161	.013	.065	.396	.864	.255	.337	.363	.700

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.7	.679	.219	.008	.240	.638	1.219	.287	.391	.525	.916
Luis García Jr.	4.6	.869	.232	.028	.160	.241	.613	.300	.340	.478	.818
José Tena	4.5	.779	.220	.028	.097	.318	1.056	.274	.332	.413	.745
CJ Abrams	4.3	.707	.205	.037	.161	.317	.740	.283	.353	.477	.829
Dylan Crews	4.2	.687	.179	.023	.130	.299	.870	.263	.329	.422	.750
Daylen Lile	4.1	.756	.208	.058	.100	.286	.629	.295	.352	.459	.811
Keibert Ruiz	4.0	.732	.191	.005	.122	.189	.436	.277	.321	.426	.747
Jorbit Vivas	3.9	.660	.169	.007	.057	.387	.509	.261	.353	.364	.716
Nasim Nuñez	3.8	.681	.100	.018	.041	.358	.791	.247	.325	.324	.649

Data notes: game-time temp 100F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections