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3.1% edge · Houston AstrosHouston Astros vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds
July 7, 2026 · Tatsuya Imai vs Andrew Alvarez · 85°F
Houston Astros win
50.4%
Washington Nationals win
49.6%
Fair line (home)
+102
Proj. total
9.35
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Houston Astros (mean 4.81)Washington Nationals (mean 4.54)
Totals
O/U line
9.5
Proj. total
9.35
Over
45.1%
Under
54.9%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 50.4% | +107 | -102 |
| Washington Nationals | 49.6% | -116 | +102 |
Houston Astros — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve | 4.9 | .833 | .213 | .009 | .146 | .476 | .786 | .274 | .350 | .426 | .777 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 4.8 | .754 | .224 | .009 | .248 | .738 | .728 | .309 | .425 | .556 | .981 |
| Isaac Paredes | 4.7 | .647 | .183 | .008 | .179 | .619 | .700 | .255 | .370 | .440 | .810 |
| Christian Walker | 4.6 | .604 | .184 | .011 | .197 | .458 | .998 | .244 | .330 | .440 | .770 |
| Cam Smith | 4.5 | .684 | .183 | .025 | .108 | .459 | 1.082 | .252 | .338 | .393 | .730 |
| Zach Dezenzo | 4.4 | .619 | .190 | .008 | .108 | .429 | 1.193 | .237 | .318 | .373 | .691 |
| Brice Matthews | 4.3 | .576 | .133 | .030 | .121 | .413 | 1.240 | .226 | .309 | .372 | .681 |
| Nick Allen | 4.2 | .717 | .158 | .010 | .041 | .373 | .743 | .247 | .320 | .327 | .648 |
| Christian Vázquez | 4.0 | .648 | .143 | .008 | .085 | .315 | .700 | .240 | .305 | .352 | .657 |
Washington Nationals — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood | 4.7 | .599 | .197 | .006 | .216 | .770 | 1.341 | .262 | .389 | .483 | .872 |
| Luis García Jr. | 4.6 | .804 | .215 | .027 | .162 | .295 | .717 | .283 | .332 | .460 | .792 |
| Curtis Mead | 4.5 | .680 | .202 | .017 | .134 | .451 | .898 | .263 | .352 | .425 | .777 |
| CJ Abrams | 4.4 | .644 | .184 | .030 | .157 | .396 | .886 | .263 | .347 | .448 | .795 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 4.3 | .712 | .182 | .004 | .129 | .240 | .560 | .259 | .310 | .405 | .716 |
| Daylen Lile | 4.1 | .698 | .182 | .050 | .105 | .347 | .758 | .276 | .344 | .435 | .779 |
| Nasim Nuñez | 4.0 | .662 | .104 | .015 | .043 | .453 | .956 | .233 | .326 | .307 | .633 |
| Jorbit Vivas | 3.9 | .609 | .155 | .006 | .056 | .457 | .613 | .244 | .349 | .343 | .692 |
| Jacob Young | 3.8 | .662 | .134 | .023 | .069 | .314 | .736 | .258 | .329 | .370 | .700 |
Data notes: home starter Andrew Alvarez: only 50 BF vs LHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections