Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

July 6, 2026 · Mike Burrows vs Miles Mikolas · 84°F

6.3% edge · Houston Astros

Houston Astros win

54.3%

Washington Nationals win

45.7%

Fair line (home)

+119

Proj. total

9.88

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 5.28)Washington Nationals (mean 4.61)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.88

Over

42.9%

Under

50.0%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	54.3%	+104	-119
Washington Nationals	45.7%	-113	+119

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jose Altuve	4.9	.885	.209	.008	.189	.370	.699	.287	.345	.463	.808
Yordan Alvarez	4.8	.797	.241	.009	.299	.583	.650	.324	.415	.603	1.017
Isaac Paredes	4.7	.676	.197	.009	.229	.503	.635	.270	.362	.489	.851
Christian Walker	4.6	.626	.182	.011	.244	.376	.922	.256	.326	.481	.806
LaMonte Wade Jr.	4.5	.663	.163	.017	.145	.580	.902	.256	.358	.420	.778
Cam Smith	4.4	.706	.183	.026	.135	.364	.949	.265	.334	.426	.760
Yainer Diaz	4.3	.797	.192	.010	.174	.180	.565	.289	.323	.470	.794
Braden Shewmake	4.1	.646	.174	.024	.101	.208	.682	.242	.287	.377	.664
Brice Matthews	4.0	.561	.138	.028	.133	.321	1.099	.235	.303	.397	.700

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.7	.618	.200	.008	.264	.693	1.300	.277	.389	.533	.922
Luis García Jr.	4.6	.794	.203	.031	.182	.270	.687	.283	.329	.473	.802
Curtis Mead	4.4	.704	.204	.015	.158	.381	.862	.271	.346	.449	.795
CJ Abrams	4.3	.643	.186	.030	.181	.345	.820	.266	.339	.468	.807
Dylan Crews	4.2	.614	.153	.024	.148	.311	.952	.243	.310	.410	.720
Daylen Lile	4.1	.702	.182	.055	.121	.301	.705	.280	.340	.453	.793
Jacob Young	4.0	.700	.147	.024	.085	.286	.731	.260	.322	.382	.704
Drew Millas	3.9	.609	.138	.020	.086	.327	.711	.240	.310	.363	.674
Nasim Nuñez	3.8	.613	.091	.017	.048	.395	.863	.229	.315	.308	.623

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections