New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

July 11, 2026 · Cam Schlittler vs PJ Poulin · 85°F

9.9% edge · Washington Nationals

New York Yankees win

54.2%

Washington Nationals win

45.8%

Fair line (home)

+118

Proj. total

9.02

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 4.87)Washington Nationals (mean 4.15)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.02

Over

40.6%

Under

49.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	54.2%	-190	-118
Washington Nationals	45.8%	+173	+118

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Amed Rosario	4.9	.886	.200	.028	.125	.273	.904	.272	.318	.410	.729
Ben Rice	4.8	.591	.173	.022	.275	.603	.958	.259	.362	.514	.876
Trent Grisham	4.7	.563	.154	.017	.196	.696	.942	.237	.357	.435	.792
Paul Goldschmidt	4.5	.712	.179	.012	.167	.420	.969	.262	.335	.434	.769
Cody Bellinger	4.4	.685	.166	.025	.191	.472	.631	.271	.353	.471	.824
Jasson Domínguez	4.3	.693	.164	.008	.141	.407	.924	.259	.334	.413	.747
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.2	.560	.123	.017	.197	.480	1.063	.242	.334	.443	.777
Anthony Volpe	4.1	.569	.177	.022	.113	.397	.886	.239	.319	.392	.711
Ali Sánchez	4.0	.600	.132	.006	.087	.327	.917	.227	.296	.338	.635

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.6	.571	.195	.011	.224	.629	1.407	.255	.363	.482	.844
Luis García Jr.	4.5	.756	.209	.029	.190	.229	.738	.280	.320	.479	.799
Curtis Mead	4.4	.636	.187	.019	.149	.342	.958	.251	.323	.422	.745
CJ Abrams	4.3	.602	.174	.024	.176	.297	.905	.252	.319	.446	.766
Daylen Lile	4.2	.678	.178	.050	.110	.260	.801	.264	.317	.422	.739
Dylan Crews	4.0	.568	.147	.018	.144	.271	1.002	.236	.297	.401	.698
Jorbit Vivas	3.9	.617	.139	.007	.070	.386	.641	.240	.328	.344	.672
Drew Millas	3.8	.581	.132	.022	.071	.304	.803	.232	.300	.344	.645
Nasim Nuñez	3.7	.602	.084	.026	.040	.357	.942	.227	.307	.304	.611

Data notes: home starter PJ Poulin: only 67 BF vs LHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections