Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

July 8, 2026 · Spencer Arrighetti vs Foster Griffin · 82°F

4.0% edge · Houston Astros

Houston Astros win

48.6%

Washington Nationals win

51.4%

Fair line (home)

-106

Proj. total

9.43

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 4.76)Washington Nationals (mean 4.66)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

9.43

Over

45.4%

Under

54.6%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	48.6%	+120	+106
Washington Nationals	51.4%	-130	-106

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jose Altuve	4.9	.832	.200	.008	.159	.392	.824	.271	.337	.428	.765
Yordan Alvarez	4.7	.769	.232	.009	.269	.608	.760	.315	.413	.575	.989
Isaac Paredes	4.7	.653	.179	.008	.189	.516	.750	.256	.355	.445	.801
Christian Walker	4.5	.600	.169	.011	.223	.374	1.060	.244	.318	.454	.772
Cam Smith	4.4	.673	.182	.025	.115	.374	1.111	.249	.323	.393	.716
Yainer Diaz	4.3	.791	.193	.011	.152	.174	.669	.279	.313	.442	.756
Brice Matthews	4.2	.579	.141	.030	.125	.345	1.273	.229	.301	.380	.681
Zach Dezenzo	4.1	.577	.177	.007	.108	.335	1.181	.234	.304	.373	.676
Nick Allen	4.0	.692	.161	.009	.045	.299	.756	.249	.311	.335	.646

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.7	.582	.184	.006	.239	.779	1.347	.262	.392	.499	.892
Luis García Jr.	4.6	.788	.204	.029	.172	.315	.717	.282	.335	.465	.800
Curtis Mead	4.5	.650	.197	.015	.144	.447	.906	.257	.348	.426	.774
CJ Abrams	4.3	.628	.182	.028	.166	.411	.873	.263	.352	.455	.807
Daylen Lile	4.3	.692	.180	.053	.109	.375	.771	.270	.344	.431	.774
Dylan Crews	4.1	.586	.144	.023	.140	.348	.985	.240	.318	.405	.723
Jorbit Vivas	4.0	.601	.148	.007	.060	.499	.633	.239	.354	.339	.693
José Tena	3.9	.590	.174	.019	.092	.351	1.072	.248	.322	.385	.707
Keibert Ruiz	3.8	.621	.156	.003	.116	.224	.492	.255	.309	.400	.709

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections