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New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

July 10, 2026 · Ryan Weathers vs Carson Palmquist · 83°F
4.8% edge · Washington Nationals
New York Yankees win
54.2%
Washington Nationals win
45.8%
Fair line (home)
+118
Proj. total
9.24

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

0%8%15%03691215182124Runs scored
New York Yankees (mean 4.97)Washington Nationals (mean 4.27)

Totals

O/U line
10
Proj. total
9.24
Over
40.6%
Under
52.6%

Model vs. market

SideModelBookFair
New York Yankees54.2%-151-118
Washington Nationals45.8%+139+118

New York Yankees — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
Amed Rosario4.9.882.198.026.122.276.913.269.318.404.722
Ben Rice4.8.588.162.023.292.594.975.259.361.522.883
Trent Grisham4.7.541.151.016.200.687.984.231.350.430.780
Paul Goldschmidt4.5.717.187.012.164.421.972.264.339.436.775
Cody Bellinger4.4.675.168.026.199.459.635.270.350.476.826
Jasson Domínguez4.3.674.163.007.137.412.962.253.331.404.735
Jazz Chisholm Jr.4.2.565.122.018.211.4821.068.247.339.460.799
José Caballero4.1.594.150.007.096.413.967.233.325.357.682
Austin Wells4.0.455.134.008.168.440.968.217.311.403.714

Washington Nationals — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
James Wood4.6.578.189.012.240.6311.355.261.368.500.867
Curtis Mead4.5.661.194.018.158.364.958.256.328.430.758
Dylan Crews4.4.634.154.021.161.2951.062.242.304.412.716
CJ Abrams4.3.609.179.029.175.300.908.257.324.454.778
Jacob Young4.2.710.158.021.078.281.826.253.314.366.680
Andrés Chaparro4.0.520.163.005.163.3361.046.232.302.411.714
Nasim Nuñez3.9.650.081.021.040.354.982.224.299.293.592
Luis García Jr.3.8.650.168.021.170.206.631.281.323.481.804
Keibert Ruiz3.7.625.157.003.121.156.491.260.300.411.710
Data notes: home starter Carson Palmquist: only 11 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Carson Palmquist: only 17 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections