New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

July 12, 2026 · Will Warren vs Cade Cavalli · 83°F

0.3% edge · Washington Nationals

New York Yankees win

48.1%

Washington Nationals win

51.9%

Fair line (home)

-108

Proj. total

9.23

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 4.69)Washington Nationals (mean 4.54)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

9.23

Over

44.7%

Under

55.3%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	48.1%	+103	+108
Washington Nationals	51.9%	-111	-108

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trent Grisham	4.9	.604	.170	.019	.193	.647	1.064	.237	.345	.426	.771
Ben Rice	4.7	.611	.167	.022	.260	.536	1.011	.256	.352	.496	.849
Jasson Domínguez	4.6	.760	.174	.009	.139	.405	1.061	.259	.331	.404	.735
Cody Bellinger	4.5	.745	.166	.029	.173	.432	.681	.274	.348	.457	.805
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.4	.617	.131	.017	.194	.456	1.145	.244	.329	.434	.763
José Caballero	4.3	.652	.162	.007	.095	.388	1.028	.239	.326	.360	.686
Ryan McMahon	4.2	.528	.140	.004	.153	.464	1.294	.223	.314	.387	.701
Austin Wells	4.1	.501	.146	.009	.154	.400	1.008	.222	.307	.394	.702
Max Schuemann	4.0	.580	.138	.013	.064	.439	.920	.230	.330	.333	.663

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.6	.591	.202	.011	.252	.667	1.302	.271	.381	.522	.903
Luis García Jr.	4.5	.780	.203	.026	.205	.248	.681	.287	.329	.494	.823
Abimelec Ortiz	4.4	.566	.164	.012	.182	.354	1.072	.233	.304	.418	.722
CJ Abrams	4.3	.646	.181	.028	.188	.310	.842	.269	.337	.475	.812
Dylan Crews	4.2	.607	.161	.019	.151	.291	.949	.246	.309	.416	.725
Daylen Lile	4.0	.679	.177	.052	.110	.267	.702	.272	.327	.435	.762
José Tena	4.0	.637	.162	.027	.093	.286	1.034	.253	.312	.389	.701
Jorbit Vivas	3.8	.613	.151	.008	.063	.389	.570	.247	.337	.353	.690
Keibert Ruiz	3.7	.628	.163	.004	.118	.175	.468	.261	.304	.411	.716

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections