Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

July 24, 2026 · Eduardo Rodriguez vs Carson Palmquist · 80°F

4.1% edge · Washington Nationals

Arizona Diamondbacks win

49.7%

Washington Nationals win

50.3%

Fair line (home)

-101

Proj. total

9.75

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 5.03)Washington Nationals (mean 4.72)

Totals

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

9.75

Over

47.2%

Under

52.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	49.7%	-122	+101
Washington Nationals	50.3%	+112	-101

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ketel Marte	5.0	.783	.216	.023	.206	.539	.703	.283	.371	.486	.857
Corbin Carroll	4.8	.621	.180	.100	.197	.614	.963	.264	.367	.497	.864
Geraldo Perdomo	4.7	.771	.177	.029	.097	.633	.575	.266	.375	.397	.772
Gabriel Moreno	4.6	.824	.204	.011	.117	.540	.706	.287	.377	.430	.807
Nolan Arenado	4.5	.709	.188	.011	.141	.374	.720	.257	.327	.411	.738
Max Kepler	4.4	.645	.177	.018	.127	.460	.842	.248	.334	.401	.736
Tyler Locklear	4.3	.636	.183	.015	.113	.413	1.036	.249	.335	.395	.730
Adrian Del Castillo	4.2	.547	.187	.012	.124	.400	1.106	.232	.312	.388	.699
Tim Tawa	4.1	.549	.155	.023	.121	.401	.915	.233	.315	.388	.704

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.7	.678	.223	.013	.227	.696	1.161	.287	.396	.520	.916
Curtis Mead	4.6	.756	.228	.023	.146	.380	.786	.278	.346	.449	.795
Andrés Chaparro	4.5	.675	.211	.006	.163	.404	.924	.261	.333	.437	.770
CJ Abrams	4.4	.694	.203	.029	.166	.331	.739	.276	.341	.468	.809
Dylan Crews	4.3	.692	.182	.019	.144	.296	.825	.265	.324	.432	.757
Jacob Young	4.1	.783	.167	.020	.072	.297	.649	.274	.332	.385	.717
Harry Ford	4.0	.575	.156	.005	.080	.495	.941	.233	.336	.350	.685
Luis García Jr.	3.9	.734	.194	.025	.155	.220	.487	.300	.341	.491	.832
Nasim Nuñez	3.8	.711	.095	.023	.039	.348	.788	.252	.325	.328	.653

Data notes: home starter Carson Palmquist: only 25 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Carson Palmquist: only 29 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections