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4.3% edge · Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds
July 26, 2026 · Kohl Drake vs Miles Mikolas · 84°F
Arizona Diamondbacks win
55.7%
Washington Nationals win
44.3%
Fair line (home)
+126
Proj. total
9.92
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 5.40)Washington Nationals (mean 4.52)
Totals
O/U line
10
Proj. total
9.92
Over
41.4%
Under
51.7%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 55.7% | -110 | -126 |
| Washington Nationals | 44.3% | +102 | +126 |
Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll | 4.9 | .713 | .215 | .113 | .227 | .483 | .824 | .287 | .364 | .542 | .906 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 4.8 | .874 | .199 | .046 | .122 | .514 | .483 | .290 | .372 | .444 | .816 |
| Gabriel Moreno | 4.7 | .948 | .237 | .012 | .134 | .417 | .601 | .312 | .377 | .466 | .844 |
| Ketel Marte | 4.6 | .780 | .213 | .032 | .231 | .399 | .547 | .302 | .369 | .534 | .903 |
| Max Kepler | 4.5 | .707 | .207 | .018 | .153 | .372 | .724 | .265 | .331 | .436 | .767 |
| Nolan Arenado | 4.4 | .750 | .195 | .009 | .162 | .283 | .580 | .274 | .326 | .445 | .771 |
| Adrian Del Castillo | 4.3 | .648 | .212 | .014 | .148 | .322 | .971 | .259 | .319 | .433 | .752 |
| Tyler Locklear | 4.2 | .698 | .186 | .016 | .128 | .315 | .891 | .270 | .335 | .429 | .764 |
| Tim Tawa | 4.1 | .592 | .175 | .023 | .141 | .319 | .794 | .251 | .314 | .424 | .739 |
Washington Nationals — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood | 4.7 | .644 | .212 | .011 | .231 | .705 | 1.227 | .279 | .392 | .514 | .906 |
| Andrés Chaparro | 4.6 | .657 | .208 | .007 | .170 | .404 | .978 | .253 | .326 | .431 | .756 |
| Dylan Crews | 4.4 | .692 | .178 | .019 | .153 | .329 | .906 | .257 | .322 | .423 | .746 |
| CJ Abrams | 4.3 | .683 | .197 | .031 | .167 | .315 | .763 | .274 | .340 | .466 | .806 |
| Brady House | 4.2 | .738 | .178 | .011 | .132 | .207 | 1.042 | .265 | .305 | .414 | .719 |
| Jacob Young | 4.1 | .751 | .170 | .021 | .067 | .281 | .682 | .266 | .325 | .375 | .700 |
| Harry Ford | 4.0 | .571 | .152 | .007 | .080 | .485 | .956 | .232 | .334 | .348 | .683 |
| Luis García Jr. | 3.9 | .722 | .189 | .024 | .153 | .215 | .516 | .295 | .337 | .484 | .821 |
| Nasim Nuñez | 3.8 | .677 | .089 | .023 | .041 | .363 | .824 | .244 | .321 | .320 | .641 |
Data notes: away starter Kohl Drake: only 5 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Kohl Drake: only 16 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections