Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

July 27, 2026 · Max Scherzer vs Eddy Yean · 84°F

5.0% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

51.5%

Washington Nationals win

48.5%

Fair line (home)

+106

Proj. total

9.72

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 5.07)Washington Nationals (mean 4.65)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.72

Over

39.6%

Under

53.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	51.5%	+111	-106
Washington Nationals	48.5%	-120	+106

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ernie Clement	4.9	.953	.262	.023	.099	.254	.411	.287	.328	.417	.746
Nathan Lukes	4.8	.890	.230	.017	.105	.435	.654	.285	.356	.418	.774
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.7	.813	.216	.005	.195	.613	.548	.303	.400	.502	.902
George Springer	4.6	.685	.174	.014	.184	.555	.805	.264	.360	.452	.811
Alejandro Kirk	4.5	.753	.169	.007	.139	.541	.509	.271	.364	.424	.788
Kazuma Okamoto	4.4	.616	.175	.005	.206	.422	.907	.255	.335	.459	.794
Daulton Varsho	4.3	.551	.178	.032	.175	.418	.910	.244	.323	.443	.767
Luis Urías	4.2	.626	.150	.012	.107	.462	.650	.246	.342	.382	.724
Myles Straw	4.1	.689	.154	.014	.045	.371	.662	.246	.319	.333	.652

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.6	.611	.201	.011	.278	.628	1.297	.277	.379	.542	.921
Luis García Jr.	4.5	.788	.211	.026	.225	.230	.669	.292	.331	.511	.842
José Tena	4.4	.756	.193	.028	.121	.292	1.139	.268	.321	.418	.739
CJ Abrams	4.3	.650	.192	.027	.200	.286	.835	.272	.333	.486	.820
Dylan Crews	4.2	.654	.159	.018	.170	.279	.934	.259	.318	.442	.759
Daylen Lile	4.1	.687	.194	.055	.121	.249	.711	.278	.328	.453	.781
Keibert Ruiz	4.0	.702	.185	.004	.131	.175	.478	.272	.312	.428	.740
Jorbit Vivas	3.9	.642	.156	.007	.070	.364	.567	.255	.338	.365	.703
Nasim Nuñez	3.8	.648	.088	.030	.045	.338	.887	.240	.314	.324	.637

Data notes: home starter Eddy Yean: only 15 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Eddy Yean: only 4 BF vs RHB this season · away starter Max Scherzer: only 69 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Max Scherzer: only 33 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections