← Slate
7.7% edge · Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds
July 25, 2026 · Mitch Bratt vs Foster Griffin · 81°F
Arizona Diamondbacks win
51.4%
Washington Nationals win
48.6%
Fair line (home)
+106
Proj. total
8.94
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.66)Washington Nationals (mean 4.29)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
8.94
Over
39.8%
Under
49.5%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 51.4% | +124 | -106 |
| Washington Nationals | 48.6% | -135 | +106 |
Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll | 4.8 | .674 | .201 | .105 | .190 | .475 | .983 | .271 | .352 | .499 | .852 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 4.7 | .850 | .183 | .030 | .088 | .494 | .596 | .275 | .360 | .396 | .756 |
| Gabriel Moreno | 4.6 | .891 | .220 | .011 | .112 | .408 | .737 | .295 | .363 | .433 | .795 |
| Ketel Marte | 4.5 | .740 | .215 | .020 | .189 | .371 | .668 | .283 | .351 | .483 | .834 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 4.4 | .852 | .180 | .027 | .072 | .216 | .446 | .272 | .315 | .380 | .695 |
| Nolan Arenado | 4.3 | .691 | .187 | .009 | .141 | .281 | .718 | .258 | .314 | .416 | .729 |
| Tim Tawa | 4.2 | .607 | .170 | .027 | .125 | .325 | .962 | .241 | .306 | .397 | .703 |
| James McCann | 4.1 | .669 | .181 | .008 | .103 | .191 | .977 | .249 | .293 | .380 | .672 |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | 4.0 | .624 | .181 | .032 | .059 | .352 | .996 | .252 | .330 | .371 | .701 |
Washington Nationals — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood | 4.6 | .654 | .222 | .010 | .221 | .581 | 1.262 | .277 | .373 | .503 | .876 |
| Curtis Mead | 4.5 | .729 | .211 | .022 | .137 | .324 | .855 | .268 | .331 | .430 | .761 |
| Andrés Chaparro | 4.4 | .637 | .203 | .005 | .160 | .336 | .993 | .251 | .314 | .424 | .738 |
| CJ Abrams | 4.3 | .676 | .199 | .031 | .158 | .280 | .778 | .271 | .333 | .459 | .791 |
| Dylan Crews | 4.2 | .665 | .167 | .017 | .129 | .259 | .895 | .253 | .310 | .406 | .715 |
| Jacob Young | 4.1 | .753 | .166 | .021 | .064 | .251 | .697 | .266 | .321 | .373 | .694 |
| Daylen Lile | 4.0 | .698 | .183 | .056 | .092 | .235 | .635 | .279 | .329 | .434 | .763 |
| Nasim Nuñez | 3.8 | .688 | .091 | .023 | .037 | .336 | .868 | .241 | .311 | .312 | .622 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 3.7 | .673 | .173 | .003 | .098 | .155 | .414 | .269 | .308 | .403 | .711 |
Data notes: away starter Mitch Bratt: only 14 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Mitch Bratt: only 37 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections