Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

July 28, 2026 · Shane Bieber vs Cade Cavalli · 74°F

2.9% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

47.1%

Washington Nationals win

52.9%

Fair line (home)

-112

Proj. total

8.76

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.36)Washington Nationals (mean 4.40)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.76

Over

37.8%

Under

51.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	47.1%	+122	+112
Washington Nationals	52.9%	-132	-112

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yohendrick Piñango	4.8	.703	.225	.008	.107	.405	1.138	.238	.309	.366	.675
Nathan Lukes	4.7	.875	.218	.019	.085	.372	.719	.279	.344	.398	.741
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.6	.799	.215	.004	.164	.542	.588	.296	.387	.475	.862
George Springer	4.5	.681	.170	.013	.165	.475	.861	.260	.348	.434	.782
Brandon Valenzuela	4.4	.597	.148	.007	.106	.383	1.125	.215	.289	.336	.625
Daulton Varsho	4.3	.551	.175	.028	.148	.366	.982	.233	.307	.408	.715
Ernie Clement	4.2	.821	.208	.021	.080	.186	.372	.286	.324	.410	.734
Andrés Giménez	4.1	.681	.176	.015	.086	.228	.700	.258	.320	.382	.703
Luis Urías	3.9	.580	.143	.010	.096	.369	.680	.238	.327	.367	.694

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.6	.670	.214	.013	.228	.571	1.240	.282	.375	.514	.889
Luis García Jr.	4.5	.841	.215	.026	.182	.199	.629	.297	.330	.488	.818
Dylan Crews	4.4	.697	.180	.022	.152	.261	.929	.259	.312	.427	.739
CJ Abrams	4.3	.695	.195	.031	.164	.262	.794	.277	.333	.467	.800
Keibert Ruiz	4.2	.752	.201	.004	.124	.170	.479	.274	.311	.421	.732
Daylen Lile	4.0	.725	.196	.056	.104	.221	.661	.285	.330	.448	.778
Nasim Nuñez	3.9	.712	.100	.033	.040	.335	.892	.247	.314	.326	.641
Jorbit Vivas	3.8	.643	.163	.007	.062	.336	.534	.255	.333	.361	.693
Jacob Young	3.7	.692	.153	.022	.062	.216	.670	.269	.319	.380	.698

Data notes: away starter Shane Bieber: only 70 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Shane Bieber: only 62 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections