Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

August 8, 2026 · Chase Burns vs Andrew Alvarez · 88°F

2.1% edge · Washington Nationals

Cincinnati Reds win

55.6%

Washington Nationals win

44.4%

Fair line (home)

+125

Proj. total

8.86

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.88)Washington Nationals (mean 3.98)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.86

Over

49.0%

Under

50.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	55.6%	-143	-125
Washington Nationals	44.4%	+132	+125

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.9	.774	.217	.034	.178	.511	1.189	.277	.357	.465	.822
Sal Stewart	4.8	.770	.235	.004	.181	.499	.846	.280	.361	.465	.825
Dane Myers	4.7	.805	.182	.008	.120	.432	1.072	.266	.341	.399	.740
Eugenio Suárez	4.6	.560	.170	.005	.226	.446	1.282	.237	.323	.448	.771
JJ Bleday	4.5	.559	.190	.015	.181	.595	.874	.246	.351	.445	.797
Matt McLain	4.3	.621	.179	.005	.132	.503	1.058	.247	.342	.401	.743
Jose Trevino	4.2	.738	.177	.004	.101	.270	.577	.259	.311	.383	.693
Noelvi Marte	4.1	.701	.172	.015	.135	.285	.793	.269	.325	.428	.754
Ke'Bryan Hayes	4.0	.704	.149	.027	.084	.301	.695	.261	.322	.385	.707

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
CJ Abrams	4.6	.660	.192	.031	.214	.353	1.033	.265	.334	.481	.815
Abimelec Ortiz	4.5	.549	.163	.009	.200	.381	1.223	.228	.302	.421	.723
Dylan Crews	4.3	.606	.156	.018	.165	.323	1.121	.238	.303	.411	.715
Daylen Lile	4.3	.690	.180	.048	.132	.290	.866	.268	.324	.439	.763
Keibert Ruiz	4.1	.689	.173	.004	.142	.221	.589	.260	.306	.417	.723
Jorbit Vivas	4.0	.623	.154	.007	.077	.422	.694	.243	.334	.356	.689
Nasim Nuñez	3.9	.622	.085	.030	.049	.407	1.045	.225	.310	.309	.619
José Tena	3.8	.580	.156	.025	.096	.299	1.119	.246	.310	.388	.698
Jacob Young	3.7	.614	.133	.017	.074	.263	.783	.248	.310	.364	.673

Data notes: game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections