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2.3% edge · Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds
August 7, 2026 · Chase Petty vs Cade Cavalli · 80°F
Cincinnati Reds win
50.4%
Washington Nationals win
49.6%
Fair line (home)
+102
Proj. total
8.9
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.64)Washington Nationals (mean 4.26)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
8.9
Over
39.2%
Under
50.4%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 50.4% | +104 | -102 |
| Washington Nationals | 49.6% | -112 | +102 |
Cincinnati Reds — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz | 4.8 | .730 | .208 | .047 | .175 | .475 | 1.270 | .269 | .348 | .461 | .808 |
| Sal Stewart | 4.7 | .723 | .224 | .003 | .174 | .461 | .945 | .266 | .343 | .443 | .787 |
| JJ Bleday | 4.6 | .587 | .197 | .014 | .184 | .567 | 1.004 | .244 | .343 | .438 | .781 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 4.5 | .661 | .180 | .007 | .129 | .455 | 1.185 | .244 | .328 | .389 | .717 |
| Eugenio Suárez | 4.4 | .541 | .155 | .004 | .223 | .372 | 1.331 | .234 | .314 | .445 | .758 |
| Héctor Rodríguez | 4.3 | .693 | .157 | .027 | .142 | .264 | .870 | .255 | .307 | .415 | .722 |
| Noelvi Marte | 4.2 | .694 | .177 | .014 | .141 | .261 | .875 | .265 | .318 | .427 | .745 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 4.1 | .694 | .153 | .025 | .081 | .288 | .743 | .254 | .314 | .374 | .688 |
| Matt McLain | 4.0 | .544 | .160 | .005 | .108 | .406 | 1.047 | .233 | .323 | .374 | .697 |
Washington Nationals — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Abrams | 4.6 | .688 | .197 | .029 | .201 | .386 | .868 | .269 | .345 | .476 | .820 |
| Abimelec Ortiz | 4.5 | .601 | .167 | .009 | .190 | .432 | 1.030 | .240 | .322 | .428 | .749 |
| Brady House | 4.4 | .706 | .167 | .009 | .158 | .265 | 1.120 | .253 | .303 | .414 | .717 |
| Daylen Lile | 4.3 | .726 | .186 | .052 | .119 | .337 | .703 | .278 | .342 | .443 | .786 |
| Dylan Crews | 4.2 | .622 | .163 | .017 | .157 | .327 | .909 | .252 | .322 | .428 | .751 |
| Harry Ford | 4.1 | .542 | .147 | .006 | .094 | .554 | 1.036 | .227 | .343 | .354 | .697 |
| Nasim Nuñez | 4.0 | .682 | .086 | .033 | .044 | .460 | .891 | .242 | .335 | .323 | .658 |
| José Tena | 3.9 | .631 | .166 | .021 | .094 | .332 | .962 | .260 | .328 | .399 | .727 |
| Jacob Young | 3.8 | .646 | .143 | .018 | .067 | .304 | .658 | .258 | .329 | .370 | .699 |
Data notes: away starter Chase Petty: only 68 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Chase Petty: only 62 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections