Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

August 12, 2026 · David Peterson vs Jackson Kent · 88°F

7.1% edge · Washington Nationals

Chicago Cubs win

52.8%

Washington Nationals win

47.2%

Fair line (home)

+112

Proj. total

8.91

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 4.70)Washington Nationals (mean 4.21)

Totals

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

8.91

Over

39.5%

Under

60.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	52.8%	-157	-112
Washington Nationals	47.2%	+145	+112

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.9	.727	.203	.045	.217	.328	1.168	.267	.327	.479	.806
Seiya Suzuki	4.7	.698	.204	.018	.198	.493	1.190	.265	.346	.462	.807
Alex Bregman	4.6	.727	.187	.014	.144	.506	.665	.263	.353	.423	.775
Carson Kelly	4.5	.713	.158	.009	.141	.425	.864	.252	.330	.400	.730
Michael Busch	4.4	.588	.175	.026	.181	.511	1.053	.253	.350	.453	.804
Nico Hoerner	4.3	.863	.214	.014	.058	.305	.389	.290	.348	.395	.743
Tyrone Taylor	4.2	.616	.199	.022	.122	.204	.911	.243	.290	.398	.688
Pedro Ramírez	4.1	.748	.154	.024	.065	.244	.755	.262	.314	.366	.680
Dansby Swanson	4.0	.582	.139	.020	.141	.354	.948	.245	.317	.413	.729

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dylan Crews	4.6	.737	.186	.023	.150	.361	.953	.260	.329	.422	.751
Andrés Chaparro	4.5	.632	.207	.005	.167	.443	.998	.251	.332	.429	.761
Brady House	4.4	.756	.183	.010	.133	.245	1.093	.261	.307	.407	.714
CJ Abrams	4.3	.674	.200	.030	.165	.355	.756	.277	.350	.472	.822
Harry Ford	4.2	.581	.160	.006	.081	.544	1.033	.230	.341	.346	.686
Andrew Pinckney	4.1	.680	.124	.017	.101	.300	1.208	.245	.310	.368	.678
Jacob Young	4.0	.743	.168	.020	.062	.293	.687	.272	.335	.380	.715
Daylen Lile	3.9	.693	.179	.048	.090	.292	.630	.285	.346	.438	.784
Nasim Nuñez	3.8	.677	.091	.022	.039	.379	.816	.247	.328	.323	.651

Data notes: home starter Jackson Kent: only 0 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Jackson Kent: only 0 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections