Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

August 11, 2026 · Shota Imanaga vs Jake Irvin · 82°F

0.1% edge · Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs win

61.8%

Washington Nationals win

38.2%

Fair line (home)

+162

Proj. total

9.46

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 5.48)Washington Nationals (mean 3.98)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.46

Over

44.4%

Under

44.8%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	61.8%	-170	-162
Washington Nationals	38.2%	+156	+162

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	5.0	.765	.221	.048	.259	.364	1.081	.284	.347	.524	.871
Seiya Suzuki	4.9	.732	.218	.017	.223	.529	1.104	.276	.359	.490	.849
Michael Busch	4.8	.641	.197	.032	.212	.583	1.031	.263	.364	.481	.845
Alex Bregman	4.7	.746	.191	.013	.161	.526	.587	.273	.364	.445	.808
Ian Happ	4.5	.602	.183	.017	.181	.585	1.100	.250	.353	.443	.797
Nico Hoerner	4.4	.903	.221	.013	.063	.333	.352	.296	.359	.404	.763
Michael Conforto	4.3	.597	.173	.008	.166	.477	.995	.248	.340	.428	.768
Carson Kelly	4.2	.681	.150	.007	.142	.426	.715	.261	.343	.418	.761
Dansby Swanson	4.1	.623	.148	.022	.153	.383	.906	.256	.329	.432	.761

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dylan Crews	4.5	.675	.175	.017	.186	.261	1.016	.249	.300	.430	.731
Andrés Chaparro	4.4	.603	.191	.005	.211	.326	1.061	.248	.309	.453	.762
Brady House	4.3	.698	.172	.012	.170	.180	1.171	.255	.290	.426	.716
CJ Abrams	4.2	.652	.182	.028	.206	.255	.832	.274	.329	.493	.822
Harry Ford	4.1	.560	.157	.006	.102	.416	1.078	.226	.313	.356	.669
Jacob Young	4.0	.703	.158	.021	.088	.231	.740	.259	.309	.383	.691
Daylen Lile	3.9	.669	.169	.050	.118	.222	.668	.275	.322	.446	.768
Nasim Nuñez	3.8	.659	.091	.019	.050	.302	.891	.236	.302	.317	.619
Andrew Pinckney	3.7	.585	.106	.014	.114	.209	1.159	.239	.290	.377	.666

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections