Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

August 13, 2026 · Kevin Gausman vs Cade Cavalli · 90°F

2.0% edge · Washington Nationals

Chicago Cubs win

55.4%

Washington Nationals win

44.6%

Fair line (home)

+124

Proj. total

9.2

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 5.02)Washington Nationals (mean 4.18)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.2

Over

52.4%

Under

47.6%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	55.4%	-141	-124
Washington Nationals	44.6%	+130	+124

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.9	.752	.215	.045	.212	.354	1.175	.273	.338	.483	.821
Seiya Suzuki	4.8	.729	.207	.015	.186	.518	1.192	.268	.353	.455	.807
Michael Busch	4.7	.651	.183	.032	.191	.547	1.086	.259	.357	.461	.818
Alex Bregman	4.6	.736	.190	.011	.142	.513	.633	.268	.360	.427	.787
Ian Happ	4.5	.592	.175	.018	.149	.571	1.150	.242	.348	.412	.760
Pedro Ramírez	4.4	.815	.166	.037	.074	.290	.795	.271	.331	.386	.717
Dansby Swanson	4.3	.648	.150	.022	.147	.381	1.013	.251	.323	.416	.739
Michael Conforto	4.2	.574	.174	.006	.139	.454	1.019	.245	.339	.411	.750
Miguel Amaya	4.0	.605	.171	.009	.110	.343	.829	.248	.329	.392	.721

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
CJ Abrams	4.5	.713	.205	.029	.206	.301	.900	.276	.334	.487	.821
Abimelec Ortiz	4.4	.604	.179	.010	.194	.338	1.080	.243	.307	.436	.743
Dylan Crews	4.3	.663	.164	.020	.166	.279	.981	.253	.309	.429	.738
Daylen Lile	4.2	.733	.190	.052	.126	.254	.751	.280	.328	.450	.778
Brady House	4.1	.684	.165	.008	.143	.189	1.117	.256	.294	.412	.706
Jorbit Vivas	4.0	.643	.169	.007	.076	.384	.603	.250	.332	.365	.697
Andrés Chaparro	3.9	.528	.170	.004	.162	.331	.958	.243	.313	.431	.744
Keibert Ruiz	3.8	.664	.173	.005	.119	.175	.476	.268	.307	.418	.725
Andrew Pinckney	3.7	.578	.098	.012	.105	.230	1.191	.233	.288	.361	.649

Data notes: game-time temp 90F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections