Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

August 27, 2026 · Gabriel Hughes vs Jake Irvin · 87°F

3.6% edge · Colorado Rockies

Colorado Rockies win

46.0%

Washington Nationals win

54.0%

Fair line (home)

-118

Proj. total

10.3

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Colorado Rockies (mean 5.07)Washington Nationals (mean 5.23)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.3

Over

44.3%

Under

48.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Colorado Rockies	46.0%	+131	+118
Washington Nationals	54.0%	-143	-118

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Gabriel Hughes RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.5	3.2	5.7	1.3	2.6
Jake Irvin RHP · Washington Nationals	4.7	3.6	5.5	1.4	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Gabriel Hughes4+ 40%6+ 9%8+ 1%

Jake Irvin4+ 49%6+ 15%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.9	.923	.197	.072	.133	.298	.708	.293	.346	.457	.803
Cole Carrigg	4.8	.824	.205	.066	.139	.330	.896	.282	.341	.454	.794
Willi Castro	4.7	.775	.189	.029	.145	.373	.986	.272	.346	.435	.781
TJ Rumfield	4.5	.806	.216	.015	.158	.388	.658	.291	.361	.466	.828
Connor Norby	4.4	.724	.235	.012	.167	.344	1.000	.281	.346	.469	.815
Troy Johnston	4.3	.775	.210	.025	.103	.295	.700	.279	.338	.422	.760
Brett Sullivan	4.2	.646	.188	.032	.117	.267	.641	.250	.303	.403	.707
Zac Veen	4.1	.646	.187	.034	.187	.280	.867	.277	.332	.491	.823
Ezequiel Tovar	4.0	.652	.209	.016	.141	.211	.865	.270	.313	.446	.759

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
CJ Abrams	4.7	.829	.241	.036	.218	.330	.790	.307	.368	.531	.899
Dylan Crews	4.6	.797	.215	.020	.187	.311	.869	.288	.347	.480	.827
Andrés Chaparro	4.5	.690	.243	.006	.237	.354	.844	.287	.350	.523	.873
Daylen Lile	4.4	.863	.221	.073	.142	.260	.627	.318	.365	.512	.876
Brady House	4.3	.813	.209	.017	.175	.191	.938	.299	.335	.488	.823
Keibert Ruiz	4.2	.833	.208	.004	.135	.195	.384	.300	.340	.457	.797
Jacob Young	4.1	.818	.190	.026	.087	.271	.577	.300	.357	.434	.792
Jorbit Vivas	4.0	.731	.180	.017	.078	.380	.457	.286	.367	.414	.781
Nasim Nuñez	3.9	.769	.095	.032	.045	.368	.686	.272	.347	.357	.704

Data notes: away starter Gabriel Hughes: only 63 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 87F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections