Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

August 25, 2026 · Mason Adams vs Andrew Alvarez · 80°F

1.9% edge · Colorado Rockies

Colorado Rockies win

44.1%

Washington Nationals win

55.9%

Fair line (home)

-127

Proj. total

10.09

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Colorado Rockies (mean 4.86)Washington Nationals (mean 5.23)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

10.09

Over

59.7%

Under

40.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Colorado Rockies	44.1%	+132	+127
Washington Nationals	55.9%	-144	-127

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Mason Adams RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.7	3.3	6.1	1.5	2.8
Andrew Alvarez LHP · Washington Nationals	4.0	3.3	4.5	1.4	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Mason Adams4+ 42%6+ 10%8+ 1%

Andrew Alvarez4+ 42%6+ 10%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.9	.921	.202	.070	.105	.341	.692	.290	.349	.437	.786
Cole Carrigg	4.8	.837	.197	.046	.106	.359	.909	.273	.338	.413	.751
Hunter Goodman	4.7	.615	.206	.021	.257	.362	1.183	.258	.322	.498	.820
TJ Rumfield	4.5	.809	.216	.017	.122	.441	.641	.287	.365	.439	.804
Willi Castro	4.4	.741	.183	.020	.100	.371	.936	.264	.343	.396	.739
Connor Norby	4.3	.697	.228	.010	.125	.372	.951	.271	.342	.430	.772
Mickey Moniak	4.2	.653	.176	.048	.174	.250	.935	.267	.316	.468	.784
Jordan Beck	4.1	.632	.185	.036	.115	.328	.979	.257	.321	.417	.738
Ryan Ritter	4.0	.656	.170	.032	.086	.301	.894	.260	.328	.395	.723

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
CJ Abrams	4.8	.866	.242	.035	.201	.329	.742	.312	.376	.524	.900
Abimelec Ortiz	4.6	.729	.243	.011	.234	.353	.822	.288	.350	.516	.866
Dylan Crews	4.5	.777	.219	.018	.161	.307	.818	.284	.346	.463	.808
Daylen Lile	4.4	.865	.229	.079	.132	.261	.596	.318	.367	.509	.876
Brady House	4.3	.850	.217	.017	.155	.198	.891	.304	.341	.480	.821
Jorbit Vivas	4.2	.793	.199	.016	.068	.394	.457	.289	.370	.407	.776
Harry Ford	4.1	.663	.196	.008	.102	.431	.813	.269	.358	.412	.770
Nasim Nuñez	4.0	.824	.108	.037	.047	.372	.655	.283	.356	.373	.729
Jacob Young	3.9	.804	.189	.024	.068	.247	.521	.305	.361	.429	.790

Data notes: away starter Mason Adams: only 0 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Mason Adams: only 0 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections