Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

August 26, 2026 · Tanner Gordon vs Matt Waldron · 82°F

3.0% edge · Washington Nationals

Colorado Rockies win

42.9%

Washington Nationals win

57.1%

Fair line (home)

-133

Proj. total

10.43

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Colorado Rockies (mean 4.97)Washington Nationals (mean 5.45)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.43

Over

52.9%

Under

37.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Colorado Rockies	42.9%	+114	+133
Washington Nationals	57.1%	-123	-133

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Tanner Gordon RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.2	2.9	5.4	0.9	2.6
Matt Waldron RHP · Washington Nationals	2.9	2.3	3.4	0.6	1.5

Strikeout ladder

Tanner Gordon4+ 34%6+ 7%8+ 1%

Matt Waldron4+ 20%6+ 3%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.927	.191	.067	.118	.285	.721	.290	.341	.441	.782
Cole Carrigg	4.7	.813	.197	.059	.129	.316	.925	.275	.333	.437	.770
Hunter Goodman	4.6	.606	.194	.025	.300	.309	1.207	.263	.319	.531	.850
TJ Rumfield	4.5	.799	.213	.015	.139	.372	.656	.287	.356	.449	.805
Willi Castro	4.4	.726	.173	.027	.117	.337	.975	.263	.337	.409	.745
Mickey Moniak	4.3	.637	.170	.051	.222	.222	.966	.267	.311	.498	.809
Connor Norby	4.2	.650	.216	.008	.147	.331	.965	.268	.334	.444	.778
Troy Johnston	4.1	.731	.200	.024	.097	.270	.696	.280	.339	.424	.763
Ezequiel Tovar	4.0	.624	.202	.016	.127	.209	.866	.260	.304	.424	.728

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
CJ Abrams	4.7	.816	.246	.037	.254	.277	.747	.311	.364	.560	.925
Abimelec Ortiz	4.6	.690	.229	.009	.302	.304	.844	.290	.344	.562	.906
Dylan Crews	4.5	.748	.217	.018	.200	.263	.804	.285	.338	.491	.829
Daylen Lile	4.4	.844	.222	.072	.157	.218	.598	.316	.357	.519	.876
Andrés Chaparro	4.3	.658	.222	.006	.254	.302	.774	.291	.348	.546	.894
José Tena	4.2	.800	.219	.031	.119	.261	.872	.302	.350	.466	.816
Harry Ford	4.0	.650	.195	.006	.128	.388	.818	.270	.349	.434	.783
Jorbit Vivas	3.9	.747	.176	.017	.080	.325	.431	.287	.357	.414	.771
Jacob Young	3.8	.765	.174	.025	.085	.231	.530	.296	.348	.432	.781

Data notes: home starter Matt Waldron: only 73 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections