Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

August 28, 2026 · Eury Pérez vs Jackson Kent · 82°F

2.8% edge · Washington Nationals

Miami Marlins win

54.8%

Washington Nationals win

45.2%

Fair line (home)

+121

Proj. total

8.5

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 4.61)Washington Nationals (mean 3.89)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.5

Over

46.2%

Under

53.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	54.8%	-142	-121
Washington Nationals	45.2%	+131	+121

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Eury Pérez RHP · Miami Marlins	5.2	5.5	4.6	1.7	2.1
Jackson Kent LHP · Washington Nationals	4.6	3.5	5.0	1.6	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Eury Pérez4+ 82%6+ 49%8+ 19%

Jackson Kent4+ 48%6+ 13%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Heriberto Hernández	4.9	.660	.194	.019	.211	.475	1.209	.249	.328	.448	.776
Agustín Ramírez	4.8	.696	.238	.016	.158	.375	.876	.256	.322	.428	.750
Otto Lopez	4.6	.913	.206	.038	.088	.305	.566	.290	.341	.417	.758
Javier Sanoja	4.5	.806	.265	.035	.078	.267	.374	.279	.324	.414	.738
Xavier Edwards	4.4	.939	.148	.043	.039	.395	.539	.293	.361	.382	.742
Kyle Stowers	4.3	.586	.186	.033	.176	.400	1.178	.254	.333	.457	.790
Leo Jiménez	4.2	.677	.173	.008	.088	.350	.757	.253	.335	.374	.709
Esteury Ruiz	4.1	.612	.162	.022	.110	.348	.955	.247	.325	.393	.718
Joe Mack	4.0	.575	.145	.008	.160	.303	.933	.244	.307	.419	.726

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
CJ Abrams	4.5	.623	.178	.028	.187	.357	1.068	.248	.322	.443	.765
Abimelec Ortiz	4.4	.536	.181	.008	.203	.370	1.154	.231	.304	.432	.736
Dylan Crews	4.3	.580	.159	.013	.149	.332	1.127	.230	.300	.390	.690
Daylen Lile	4.2	.662	.174	.053	.114	.269	.871	.257	.313	.417	.730
Brady House	4.1	.622	.158	.013	.137	.208	1.190	.240	.284	.393	.677
Jorbit Vivas	4.0	.611	.144	.012	.061	.433	.681	.236	.332	.337	.669
Harry Ford	3.9	.481	.141	.004	.093	.466	1.087	.213	.318	.340	.658
Andrés Chaparro	3.8	.454	.151	.004	.162	.345	.967	.227	.307	.417	.724
Jacob Young	3.7	.598	.130	.019	.058	.287	.739	.242	.312	.345	.658

Data notes: home starter Jackson Kent: only 15 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Jackson Kent: only 46 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections