Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

August 29, 2026 · Sandy Alcantara vs Cade Cavalli · 80°F

0.9% edge · Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins win

50.9%

Washington Nationals win

49.1%

Fair line (home)

+104

Proj. total

8.45

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 4.36)Washington Nationals (mean 4.09)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.45

Over

45.2%

Under

47.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	50.9%	-104	-104
Washington Nationals	49.1%	-104	+104

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Sandy Alcantara RHP · Miami Marlins	6.1	4.6	6.6	1.5	2.7
Cade Cavalli RHP · Washington Nationals	5.1	5.2	5.1	1.7	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Sandy Alcantara4+ 69%6+ 31%8+ 9%

Cade Cavalli4+ 79%6+ 43%8+ 14%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Stowers	4.8	.628	.196	.041	.180	.425	1.425	.242	.321	.432	.753
Heriberto Hernández	4.7	.617	.183	.019	.183	.422	1.319	.237	.314	.419	.733
Xavier Edwards	4.6	.963	.150	.057	.036	.407	.643	.290	.358	.380	.737
Griffin Conine	4.5	.618	.167	.010	.184	.396	1.361	.243	.318	.425	.743
Otto Lopez	4.4	.852	.203	.036	.075	.270	.619	.287	.337	.410	.747
Jakob Marsee	4.3	.605	.145	.039	.081	.465	.923	.233	.329	.358	.687
Javier Sanoja	4.2	.738	.236	.031	.062	.226	.392	.273	.316	.396	.712
Owen Caissie	4.0	.547	.165	.011	.140	.338	1.341	.236	.308	.401	.709
Joe Mack	3.9	.561	.153	.008	.144	.272	.994	.240	.301	.407	.707

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
CJ Abrams	4.6	.718	.215	.028	.174	.298	.855	.272	.334	.462	.797
Abimelec Ortiz	4.4	.622	.201	.009	.203	.311	.954	.253	.313	.456	.768
José Tena	4.3	.761	.207	.028	.089	.272	1.023	.269	.320	.400	.720
Daylen Lile	4.2	.756	.180	.062	.109	.236	.685	.280	.327	.439	.767
Dylan Crews	4.1	.621	.171	.014	.139	.265	.867	.248	.307	.409	.716
Keibert Ruiz	4.0	.724	.183	.003	.108	.185	.419	.267	.308	.402	.710
Brady House	3.9	.671	.174	.013	.128	.174	.944	.266	.304	.423	.727
Jorbit Vivas	3.8	.644	.151	.015	.052	.343	.500	.255	.334	.354	.688
Nasim Nuñez	3.7	.669	.088	.032	.038	.313	.738	.248	.316	.327	.644

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections