Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

August 31, 2026 · Ryan Gusto vs Will Dion · 87°F

0.6% edge · Washington Nationals

Miami Marlins win

49.4%

Washington Nationals win

50.6%

Fair line (home)

-102

Proj. total

8.53

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 4.37)Washington Nationals (mean 4.16)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.53

Over

46.3%

Under

53.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	49.4%	-104	+102
Washington Nationals	50.6%	-104	-102

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Ryan Gusto RHP · Miami Marlins	3.6	2.8	3.8	1.0	1.7
Will Dion LHP · Washington Nationals	2.3	2.0	2.2	0.6	0.8

Strikeout ladder

Ryan Gusto4+ 30%6+ 5%8+ 0%

Will Dion4+ 13%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Heriberto Hernández	4.8	.625	.183	.019	.215	.466	1.262	.243	.323	.445	.768
Otto Lopez	4.7	.927	.209	.040	.100	.291	.606	.292	.340	.427	.767
Agustín Ramírez	4.6	.653	.223	.016	.162	.356	.887	.252	.318	.429	.747
Javier Sanoja	4.5	.793	.252	.033	.082	.273	.389	.278	.325	.412	.737
Kyle Stowers	4.4	.565	.182	.036	.193	.402	1.230	.250	.328	.463	.792
Leo Jiménez	4.3	.681	.179	.011	.092	.346	.811	.254	.334	.379	.713
Jakob Marsee	4.2	.589	.144	.041	.092	.488	.854	.240	.340	.379	.719
Esteury Ruiz	4.0	.585	.155	.025	.100	.339	.977	.238	.316	.378	.694
Brian Navarreto	3.9	.550	.142	.011	.089	.208	.920	.216	.267	.333	.600

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
CJ Abrams	4.5	.678	.200	.031	.179	.340	.885	.264	.334	.458	.792
Abimelec Ortiz	4.4	.583	.185	.009	.211	.356	.982	.245	.314	.453	.766
Andrés Chaparro	4.3	.565	.198	.004	.189	.372	.961	.244	.316	.441	.758
Daylen Lile	4.2	.717	.182	.066	.117	.258	.719	.276	.328	.445	.773
Brady House	4.1	.674	.171	.014	.142	.210	1.029	.257	.300	.418	.718
Jorbit Vivas	4.0	.644	.157	.015	.067	.413	.564	.249	.340	.358	.698
Jacob Young	3.9	.690	.147	.021	.071	.281	.661	.260	.324	.373	.696
Keibert Ruiz	3.8	.643	.171	.003	.106	.207	.432	.260	.309	.400	.709
Andrew Pinckney	3.7	.599	.105	.016	.110	.234	1.097	.245	.302	.382	.685

Data notes: home starter Will Dion: only 53 BF vs LHB this season · game-time temp 87F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections