Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

September 1, 2026 · AJ Smith-Shawver vs Jake Irvin · 93°F

2.7% edge · Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves win

61.8%

Washington Nationals win

38.2%

Fair line (home)

+162

Proj. total

9.66

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 5.58)Washington Nationals (mean 4.08)

Totals

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

9.66

Over

46.1%

Under

53.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	61.8%	-152	-162
Washington Nationals	38.2%	+140	+162

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
AJ Smith-Shawver RHP · Atlanta Braves	4.9	5.1	4.6	1.7	2.1
Jake Irvin RHP · Washington Nationals	4.7	3.7	5.5	1.7	2.8

Strikeout ladder

AJ Smith-Shawver4+ 77%6+ 41%8+ 13%

Jake Irvin4+ 52%6+ 16%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.9	.853	.175	.012	.256	.467	.794	.293	.367	.511	.878
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.8	.784	.187	.018	.256	.638	.904	.300	.400	.539	.940
Matt Olson	4.7	.652	.223	.007	.295	.550	1.034	.284	.373	.555	.927
Michael Harris II	4.6	.835	.212	.029	.229	.186	.792	.296	.329	.513	.842
Mauricio Dubón	4.5	.853	.212	.015	.098	.247	.507	.278	.322	.405	.727
Ozzie Albies	4.4	.727	.187	.010	.167	.311	.584	.271	.330	.447	.777
Austin Riley	4.3	.645	.178	.015	.200	.332	1.089	.267	.332	.474	.807
Brewer Hicklen	4.2	.592	.158	.031	.169	.298	1.127	.250	.315	.441	.756
Ha-Seong Kim	4.1	.632	.156	.009	.090	.451	.694	.248	.337	.372	.709

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
CJ Abrams	4.6	.657	.194	.031	.198	.341	1.055	.260	.327	.464	.791
Dylan Crews	4.5	.623	.168	.017	.166	.313	1.130	.238	.301	.409	.710
Brady House	4.3	.694	.167	.014	.161	.208	1.249	.252	.293	.417	.711
Daylen Lile	4.2	.680	.180	.054	.124	.267	.845	.263	.316	.431	.747
Yohandy Morales	4.1	.621	.165	.007	.153	.281	1.236	.247	.304	.413	.717
Abimelec Ortiz	4.0	.517	.170	.007	.211	.317	1.019	.246	.312	.468	.780
Harry Ford	3.9	.510	.145	.005	.103	.439	1.057	.222	.318	.356	.675
Jorbit Vivas	3.8	.595	.136	.013	.069	.380	.637	.241	.328	.350	.678
Jacob Young	3.7	.641	.144	.021	.069	.255	.723	.258	.318	.374	.692

Data notes: away starter AJ Smith-Shawver: only 42 BF vs LHB this season · away starter AJ Smith-Shawver: only 21 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 93F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections