Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

September 2, 2026 · Grant Holmes vs Brad Lord · 83°F

3.1% edge · Washington Nationals

Atlanta Braves win

53.3%

Washington Nationals win

46.7%

Fair line (home)

+114

Proj. total

9.75

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 5.19)Washington Nationals (mean 4.56)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.75

Over

47.1%

Under

42.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	53.3%	-135	-114
Washington Nationals	46.7%	+125	+114

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Grant Holmes RHP · Atlanta Braves	4.7	4.3	5.0	1.9	2.5
Brad Lord RHP · Washington Nationals	2.3	1.9	2.4	1.0	1.1

Strikeout ladder

Grant Holmes4+ 64%6+ 27%8+ 6%

Brad Lord4+ 11%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.9	.827	.168	.012	.207	.487	.842	.276	.355	.461	.816
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.8	.734	.184	.016	.205	.682	.937	.280	.390	.484	.874
Matt Olson	4.7	.629	.214	.007	.261	.577	1.071	.271	.367	.518	.885
Ozzie Albies	4.6	.744	.202	.011	.146	.357	.623	.263	.329	.421	.750
Michael Harris II	4.5	.795	.204	.025	.185	.207	.803	.284	.323	.475	.797
Sean Murphy	4.4	.524	.164	.008	.156	.454	1.140	.222	.317	.391	.708
Mike Yastrzemski	4.3	.542	.174	.019	.153	.491	.929	.238	.334	.418	.752
Austin Riley	4.2	.612	.175	.013	.166	.344	1.103	.257	.328	.442	.770
Ha-Seong Kim	4.0	.608	.143	.010	.084	.482	.737	.239	.335	.356	.691

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.6	.611	.201	.009	.247	.670	1.288	.273	.383	.518	.902
Abimelec Ortiz	4.5	.591	.188	.008	.239	.364	1.044	.250	.318	.474	.792
Dylan Crews	4.4	.630	.175	.017	.157	.328	1.011	.244	.310	.414	.724
CJ Abrams	4.3	.631	.191	.032	.186	.326	.887	.268	.337	.477	.814
Andrés Chaparro	4.2	.549	.186	.005	.191	.360	.962	.246	.318	.449	.768
Daylen Lile	4.1	.665	.177	.053	.119	.262	.737	.269	.323	.438	.761
Yohandy Morales	4.0	.621	.170	.009	.148	.271	1.068	.259	.315	.431	.746
Keibert Ruiz	3.9	.666	.172	.004	.116	.200	.461	.265	.311	.412	.722
Nasim Nuñez	3.7	.656	.081	.028	.041	.366	.809	.241	.319	.318	.638

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections