Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

September 12, 2026 · Walbert Ureña vs Andrew Alvarez · 80°F

4.6% edge · Washington Nationals

Los Angeles Angels win

41.7%

Washington Nationals win

58.3%

Fair line (home)

-140

Proj. total

8.73

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Los Angeles Angels (mean 4.07)Washington Nationals (mean 4.66)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.73

Over

47.6%

Under

44.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Los Angeles Angels	41.7%	+112	+140
Washington Nationals	58.3%	-121	-140

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Walbert Ureña RHP · Los Angeles Angels	4.7	3.7	5.1	2.3	2.5
Andrew Alvarez LHP · Washington Nationals	4.2	4.2	3.9	1.7	1.7

Strikeout ladder

Walbert Ureña4+ 52%6+ 17%8+ 3%

Andrew Alvarez4+ 63%6+ 24%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Los Angeles Angels — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Zach Neto	4.8	.666	.203	.020	.175	.411	1.152	.249	.327	.428	.756
Mike Trout	4.7	.610	.167	.006	.176	.755	1.148	.249	.381	.433	.814
Jose Siri	4.6	.590	.171	.019	.155	.342	1.384	.225	.292	.387	.678
Vaughn Grissom	4.5	.778	.199	.005	.090	.338	.746	.264	.330	.383	.712
Christian Moore	4.3	.628	.158	.028	.100	.456	1.189	.237	.324	.371	.694
Oswald Peraza	4.3	.635	.139	.017	.100	.282	1.039	.229	.292	.350	.642
Denzer Guzman	4.1	.625	.174	.012	.128	.290	.978	.246	.304	.398	.702
Kyren Paris	4.0	.497	.134	.014	.100	.423	1.267	.210	.300	.340	.640
Tyler Heineman	3.9	.643	.119	.018	.048	.264	.658	.233	.302	.317	.620

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.7	.639	.219	.013	.200	.833	1.135	.280	.414	.501	.915
Abimelec Ortiz	4.6	.604	.203	.011	.173	.455	.957	.244	.328	.426	.754
Dylan Crews	4.5	.665	.184	.018	.123	.429	.940	.249	.333	.398	.731
CJ Abrams	4.3	.642	.191	.029	.151	.420	.853	.263	.349	.446	.795
Brady House	4.3	.725	.174	.013	.129	.282	.991	.264	.319	.413	.732
Daylen Lile	4.1	.698	.171	.067	.106	.354	.696	.279	.349	.446	.795
Keibert Ruiz	4.0	.708	.184	.003	.102	.264	.415	.268	.324	.401	.726
Jorbit Vivas	3.9	.639	.159	.013	.047	.482	.503	.255	.360	.352	.712
Jacob Young	3.8	.675	.155	.020	.051	.350	.598	.265	.345	.368	.713

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections