Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

September 11, 2026 · Yusei Kikuchi vs Cade Cavalli · 79°F

1.5% edge · Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels win

43.0%

Washington Nationals win

57.0%

Fair line (home)

-132

Proj. total

8.34

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Los Angeles Angels (mean 3.95)Washington Nationals (mean 4.39)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.34

Over

51.9%

Under

48.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Los Angeles Angels	43.0%	+136	+132
Washington Nationals	57.0%	-148	-132

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Yusei Kikuchi LHP · Los Angeles Angels	4.9	5.2	4.8	1.9	2.3
Cade Cavalli RHP · Washington Nationals	5.1	5.7	4.7	1.7	1.9

Strikeout ladder

Yusei Kikuchi4+ 77%6+ 42%8+ 14%

Cade Cavalli4+ 85%6+ 53%8+ 20%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Los Angeles Angels — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Zach Neto	4.8	.642	.197	.019	.165	.351	1.326	.238	.315	.409	.723
Mike Trout	4.7	.601	.161	.005	.175	.641	1.330	.239	.356	.416	.772
Wade Meckler	4.5	.843	.184	.010	.051	.422	.970	.266	.340	.354	.694
Vaughn Grissom	4.5	.765	.203	.005	.092	.296	.878	.261	.322	.380	.702
Moisés Ballesteros	4.3	.721	.170	.006	.108	.337	.861	.253	.316	.380	.696
Christian Moore	4.2	.596	.145	.030	.096	.377	1.302	.228	.304	.357	.662
Josh Lowe	4.1	.592	.172	.011	.120	.327	1.156	.237	.302	.383	.685
Denzer Guzman	4.0	.580	.156	.012	.111	.244	1.086	.229	.281	.366	.648
Adam Frazier	3.9	.635	.146	.007	.049	.271	.810	.236	.302	.322	.625

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.6	.600	.192	.009	.237	.689	1.290	.268	.382	.506	.888
Andrés Chaparro	4.5	.585	.191	.005	.203	.400	1.094	.244	.318	.445	.763
Brady House	4.4	.700	.185	.015	.152	.233	1.162	.256	.301	.420	.721
CJ Abrams	4.3	.601	.182	.029	.174	.347	.953	.256	.329	.455	.784
Dylan Crews	4.2	.576	.162	.016	.145	.325	1.015	.238	.307	.404	.711
Yohandy Morales	4.0	.612	.170	.007	.162	.300	1.102	.256	.317	.436	.753
Harry Ford	3.9	.518	.150	.004	.100	.485	.984	.226	.330	.361	.691
Jorbit Vivas	3.8	.599	.147	.014	.058	.423	.561	.244	.339	.349	.688
Jacob Young	3.7	.642	.143	.017	.063	.293	.662	.256	.325	.365	.690

Data notes: away starter Yusei Kikuchi: only 51 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections