Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

September 15, 2026 · Cristopher Sánchez vs Jackson Kent · 74°F

2.3% edge · Washington Nationals

Philadelphia Phillies win

63.8%

Washington Nationals win

36.2%

Fair line (home)

+176

Proj. total

8.48

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 5.04)Washington Nationals (mean 3.44)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.48

Over

45.0%

Under

46.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	63.8%	-208	-176
Washington Nationals	36.2%	+189	+176

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Cristopher Sánchez LHP · Philadelphia Phillies	6.1	6.4	5.9	1.4	2.1
Jackson Kent LHP · Washington Nationals	4.8	3.7	5.3	2.0	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Cristopher Sánchez4+ 89%6+ 64%8+ 30%

Jackson Kent4+ 51%6+ 16%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.9	.536	.139	.009	.307	.800	1.319	.242	.372	.506	.878
Trea Turner	4.8	.872	.210	.023	.140	.340	.835	.280	.336	.432	.767
Bryce Harper	4.7	.695	.238	.016	.204	.696	.885	.289	.398	.511	.909
Luis Arraez	4.6	1.093	.201	.039	.054	.247	.181	.321	.362	.423	.785
Alec Bohm	4.5	.826	.206	.015	.119	.337	.597	.284	.344	.428	.772
Bryan De La Cruz	4.4	.721	.179	.005	.135	.306	.978	.256	.312	.403	.715
Bryson Stott	4.3	.724	.169	.037	.092	.410	.641	.267	.342	.402	.744
J.T. Realmuto	4.2	.648	.185	.012	.117	.316	.840	.254	.321	.402	.723
Derek Hill	4.0	.637	.143	.021	.118	.259	1.080	.245	.301	.389	.690

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dylan Crews	4.5	.698	.201	.018	.109	.250	1.148	.243	.294	.376	.670
Andrés Chaparro	4.4	.639	.203	.005	.143	.293	1.126	.243	.300	.400	.700
Brady House	4.3	.753	.190	.017	.106	.184	1.177	.260	.297	.392	.689
Yohandy Morales	4.2	.695	.194	.011	.114	.220	1.207	.256	.301	.397	.697
Jacob Young	4.1	.772	.169	.023	.051	.235	.783	.266	.317	.362	.679
Jorbit Vivas	4.0	.684	.178	.013	.042	.330	.652	.253	.325	.344	.669
Harry Ford	3.9	.548	.157	.006	.076	.353	1.057	.225	.305	.339	.644
Andrew Pinckney	3.8	.663	.115	.020	.080	.182	1.238	.247	.292	.359	.651
Nasim Nuñez	3.6	.685	.085	.021	.024	.255	.859	.241	.299	.301	.600

Data notes: home starter Jackson Kent: only 28 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections