Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

September 13, 2026 · Grayson Rodriguez vs Jake Irvin · 78°F

2.8% edge · Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels win

48.2%

Washington Nationals win

51.8%

Fair line (home)

-107

Proj. total

9.08

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Los Angeles Angels (mean 4.57)Washington Nationals (mean 4.51)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.08

Over

40.8%

Under

48.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Los Angeles Angels	48.2%	+116	+107
Washington Nationals	51.8%	-126	-107

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Grayson Rodriguez RHP · Los Angeles Angels	4.9	4.7	5.1	1.7	2.4
Jake Irvin RHP · Washington Nationals	4.8	4.6	5.0	1.8	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Grayson Rodriguez4+ 71%6+ 33%8+ 9%

Jake Irvin4+ 70%6+ 31%8+ 8%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Los Angeles Angels — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Zach Neto	4.8	.667	.202	.024	.214	.378	1.175	.254	.329	.459	.787
Mike Trout	4.7	.627	.162	.006	.218	.688	1.182	.255	.373	.464	.837
Wade Meckler	4.6	.874	.187	.013	.065	.460	.839	.276	.354	.375	.729
Vaughn Grissom	4.5	.774	.197	.003	.120	.315	.761	.265	.326	.401	.727
Moisés Ballesteros	4.4	.754	.173	.007	.142	.360	.736	.268	.333	.422	.754
Denzer Guzman	4.3	.646	.169	.011	.148	.280	1.022	.245	.300	.405	.705
Josh Lowe	4.2	.607	.177	.010	.161	.352	1.038	.250	.317	.428	.746
Jose Siri	4.1	.522	.144	.014	.166	.264	1.296	.225	.283	.403	.686
Christian Moore	4.0	.553	.141	.028	.107	.393	1.089	.236	.319	.383	.701

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.6	.607	.206	.012	.230	.693	1.263	.272	.386	.509	.895
Abimelec Ortiz	4.5	.586	.186	.011	.197	.375	1.048	.241	.312	.437	.749
Andrés Chaparro	4.4	.576	.191	.005	.197	.385	1.005	.245	.321	.446	.767
CJ Abrams	4.3	.621	.175	.028	.169	.337	.924	.257	.330	.448	.777
Yohandy Morales	4.2	.629	.176	.008	.149	.299	1.129	.250	.310	.415	.726
Daylen Lile	4.1	.669	.169	.072	.122	.285	.747	.275	.332	.455	.788
Keibert Ruiz	4.0	.690	.177	.003	.119	.217	.451	.267	.315	.413	.727
José Tena	3.8	.612	.161	.022	.084	.313	1.026	.251	.318	.382	.699
Jacob Young	3.7	.641	.147	.019	.062	.299	.655	.258	.328	.368	.696

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections