New York Mets vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

September 25, 2026 · Jefry Yan vs Andrew Alvarez · 68°F

5.4% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

55.2%

Washington Nationals win

44.8%

Fair line (home)

+123

Proj. total

9.15

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.94)Washington Nationals (mean 4.20)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.15

Over

51.7%

Under

48.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	55.2%	-103	-123
Washington Nationals	44.8%	-105	+123

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jefry Yan LHP · New York Mets	2.1	2.4	1.8	1.2	0.8
Andrew Alvarez LHP · Washington Nationals	4.2	3.5	4.4	2.0	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Jefry Yan4+ 19%6+ 2%8+ 0%

Andrew Alvarez4+ 47%6+ 13%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.9	.762	.179	.020	.160	.449	.850	.256	.337	.415	.752
Juan Soto	4.8	.670	.163	.018	.219	.999	.691	.282	.435	.509	.943
Bo Bichette	4.7	.909	.211	.016	.117	.356	.737	.289	.347	.426	.772
Mark Vientos	4.6	.652	.188	.010	.198	.352	1.077	.249	.313	.439	.752
Carson Benge	4.5	.790	.169	.027	.117	.403	.879	.273	.347	.415	.762
Francisco Alvarez	4.4	.591	.154	.009	.172	.465	1.091	.239	.328	.416	.744
Marcus Semien	4.3	.659	.147	.013	.117	.427	.692	.244	.324	.381	.705
A.J. Ewing	4.2	.747	.171	.020	.063	.417	.914	.269	.347	.377	.724
Christopher Morel	4.0	.526	.150	.009	.142	.401	1.111	.230	.315	.396	.711

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.6	.567	.196	.007	.193	.789	1.378	.253	.384	.460	.844
Andrés Chaparro	4.5	.568	.185	.004	.175	.465	1.123	.232	.319	.412	.731
Brady House	4.4	.678	.177	.014	.128	.295	1.196	.244	.301	.389	.689
Dylan Crews	4.3	.582	.164	.017	.118	.371	1.079	.228	.305	.370	.675
CJ Abrams	4.2	.582	.180	.023	.152	.382	.971	.250	.332	.433	.765
Jacob Young	4.1	.686	.156	.019	.061	.369	.781	.251	.329	.353	.682
Daylen Lile	4.0	.607	.161	.056	.111	.322	.798	.258	.325	.425	.751
Keibert Ruiz	3.9	.658	.169	.003	.099	.232	.488	.258	.313	.390	.702
Jorbit Vivas	3.8	.572	.142	.010	.046	.453	.605	.238	.343	.332	.674

Data notes: away starter Jefry Yan: only 39 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Jefry Yan: only 47 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections